Sevilla Atletico vs Badajoz: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Jesús Navas, Sevilla
The Footlab model makes Badajoz the favourite at 45%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Sevilla Atletico. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sevilla Atletico vs Badajoz?
Badajoz starts as the favourite with a 231-point Elo edge (1,992 vs 1,761).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sevilla Atletico have 1 wins, 5 draws and 9 defeats; Badajoz have 12, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Alcorcon(home) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 16, 2026 | Villarreal II(away) | 0-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 10, 2026 | Eldense(home) | 2-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 2, 2026 | Gimnastic(away) | 1-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Algeciras(home) | 0-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Cuarte(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Cuarte(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Moralo(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 31, 2026 | Moralo(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 24, 2026 | Jaraíz(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Sevilla Atletico win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Badajoz win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2021 | Badajoz 1-1 Sevilla Atletico | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 19, 2020 | Sevilla Atletico 1-1 Badajoz | Primera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Aug 31, 2019 | Badajoz 1-0 Sevilla Atletico | Primera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Badajoz vs Sevilla Atletico on Aug 13, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Sevilla Atletico score 0.6 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Badajoz score 2.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla Atletico | 0.6 | 1.5 | 2 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Badajoz | 2.5 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sevilla Atletico vs Badajoz?
- The Footlab model makes Badajoz the favourite at 45%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Sevilla Atletico.
- Where and when is Sevilla Atletico vs Badajoz played?
- Sevilla Atletico vs Badajoz is played on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Jesús Navas, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.