FC Tokyo vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 25, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Ajinomoto Stadium, Chōfu
The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for FC Tokyo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Tokyo vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate FC Tokyo (2,003) and Sanfrecce Hiroshima (2,090).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Tokyo have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Sanfrecce Hiroshima have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 2-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(away) | 2-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Machida Zelvia(home) | 1-5 | J1 League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kawasaki Frontale(home) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Urawa(away) | 4-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 3-0 | J1 League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Verspah Oita(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Sturm Graz(away) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 FC Tokyo win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | FC Tokyo 4-3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-0 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| May 25, 2025 | FC Tokyo 0-3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-2 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| Jun 9, 2024 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-1 FC Tokyo | J-League Cup |
| Jun 5, 2024 | FC Tokyo 1-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J-League Cup |
Last archived meeting: FC Tokyo vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima on Jan 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Tokyo score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Sanfrecce Hiroshima score 2.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tokyo | 1.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Tokyo sit 11th in J1 League (4 points from 3 matches) and Sanfrecce Hiroshima sit 4th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | FC Tokyo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Tokyo vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
- The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for FC Tokyo.
- Where and when is FC Tokyo vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima played?
- FC Tokyo vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima is played on November 25, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Ajinomoto Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 25, 2026V-varen NagasakivsKawasaki Frontale
- Nov 25, 2026UrawavsCerezo Osaka
- Nov 25, 2026JEF United ChibavsNagoya Grampus
- Nov 25, 2026Mito HollyhockvsTokyo Verdy
- Nov 25, 2026Fagiano OkayamavsShimizu S-pulse
- Nov 25, 2026Avispa FukuokavsYokohama F. Marinos
- Dec 16, 2026KashimavsMachida Zelvia
- Dec 16, 2026Gamba OsakavsKashiwa Reysol