Fagiano Okayama vs Shimizu S-pulse: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 25, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)City Light Stadium, Okayama
The Footlab model makes Fagiano Okayama the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Shimizu S-pulse. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fagiano Okayama vs Shimizu S-pulse?
A very open match: only 37 Elo points separate Fagiano Okayama (1,938) and Shimizu S-pulse (1,901).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fagiano Okayama have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Shimizu S-pulse have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tokyo Verdy(home) | 0-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | V-varen Nagasaki(home) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka(away) | 1-2 | J1 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | FC Schalke 04(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Werder Bremen(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka(away) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Yokohama F. Marinos(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(away) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Karlsruher SC(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Yokohama F. Marinos(away) | 0-3 | J1 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Fagiano Okayama win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Shimizu S-pulse win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Fagiano Okayama 2-0 Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse 1-1 Fagiano Okayama | J1 League |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Shimizu S-pulse 1-2 Fagiano Okayama | J1 League |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Fagiano Okayama 1-1 Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League |
| Jun 30, 2024 | Shimizu S-pulse 3-1 Fagiano Okayama | J2 League |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Fagiano Okayama 0-1 Shimizu S-pulse | J2 League |
Last archived meeting: Fagiano Okayama vs Shimizu S-pulse on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fagiano Okayama score 1.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Shimizu S-pulse score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fagiano Okayama | 1.3 | 1.0 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Shimizu S-pulse | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fagiano Okayama sit 9th in J1 League (4 points from 3 matches) and Shimizu S-pulse sit 15th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Shimizu S-pulse | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fagiano Okayama vs Shimizu S-pulse?
- The Footlab model makes Fagiano Okayama the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Shimizu S-pulse.
- Where and when is Fagiano Okayama vs Shimizu S-pulse played?
- Fagiano Okayama vs Shimizu S-pulse is played on November 25, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at City Light Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 25, 2026V-varen NagasakivsKawasaki Frontale
- Nov 25, 2026UrawavsCerezo Osaka
- Nov 25, 2026FC TokyovsSanfrecce Hiroshima
- Nov 25, 2026JEF United ChibavsNagoya Grampus
- Nov 25, 2026Mito HollyhockvsTokyo Verdy
- Nov 25, 2026Avispa FukuokavsYokohama F. Marinos
- Dec 16, 2026KashimavsMachida Zelvia
- Dec 16, 2026Gamba OsakavsKashiwa Reysol