Skanste vs Smiltene: prediction and stats
1. LigaRegular Season - 24Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Hanzas vidusskolas laukums, Riga
The Footlab model makes Skanste the favourite at 60%, against 20% for a draw and 20% for Smiltene. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Skanste vs Smiltene?
Skanste starts as the favourite with a 141-point Elo edge (1,393 vs 1,252).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Skanste have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Smiltene have 3, 1 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Super Nova 2(away) | 1-1 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rēzekne FA(home) | 5-1 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Mārupe(home) | 4-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Leevon / PPK(away) | 1-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Valmiera / BSS(home) | 0-3 | 1. Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Leevon / PPK(away) | 2-4 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Valmiera / BSS(home) | 1-4 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | JFK Ventspils(away) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Rīgas FS II(home) | 3-5 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Rēzekne FA(home) | 1-0 | 1. Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Skanste win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Smiltene win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2026 | Smiltene 2-4 Skanste | 1. Liga |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Smiltene 1-2 Skanste | 1. Liga |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Skanste 1-1 Smiltene | 1. Liga |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Skanste 0-3 Smiltene | 1. Liga |
| Jul 28, 2024 | Smiltene 0-3 Skanste | 1. Liga |
| Aug 12, 2023 | Skanste 3-0 Smiltene | 1. Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Skanste score 1.6 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Smiltene score 1.4 and concede 2.8. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skanste | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Smiltene | 1.4 | 2.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Skanste sit 8th in 1. Liga (10 points from 9 matches) and Smiltene sit 13th (4 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Skanste | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 10 |
| 8 | Skanste | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 31 | 33 | 20 |
| 13 | Smiltene | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 4 |
| 13 | Smiltene | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 47 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Skanste vs Smiltene?
- The Footlab model makes Skanste the favourite at 60%, against 20% for a draw and 20% for Smiltene.
- Where and when is Skanste vs Smiltene played?
- Skanste vs Smiltene is played on October 24, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Hanzas vidusskolas laukums, in the 1. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.