Mārupe vs Riga Mariners: prediction and stats
1. LigaRegular Season - 24Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Jaunmārupes stadions, Jaunmārupe
The Footlab AI model makes Riga Mariners the favourite at 59%, against 21% for a draw and 20% for Mārupe. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,356 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mārupe vs Riga Mariners?
Riga Mariners starts as the favourite with a 220-point Elo edge (1,634 vs 1,414).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mārupe vs Riga Mariners
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mārupe
Not enough data to predict the Mārupe lineup.
Riga Mariners
Not enough data to predict the Riga Mariners lineup.
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 08:23 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mārupe have 7 wins, 1 draw and 7 defeats; Riga Mariners have 11, 1 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Rīgas FS II(away) | 3-2 | 1. Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Riga FC II(home) | 0-0 | 1. Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Tukums II(home) | 5-0 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | JDFS Alberts(home) | 0-2 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Valmiera / BSS(away) | 1-4 | 1. Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Metta / LU(away) | 0-4 | 1. Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Valmiera / BSS(away) | 4-2 | 1. Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Smiltene(away) | 1-4 | 1. Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Rēzekne FA(home) | 5-0 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Rīgas FS II(home) | 3-1 | 1. Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Mārupe wins, 0 draws, 3 Riga Mariners wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | Riga Mariners 2-0 Mārupe | 1. Liga |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Riga Mariners 3-1 Mārupe | 1. Liga |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Mārupe 1-2 Riga Mariners | 1. Liga |
Last archived meeting: Riga Mariners vs Mārupe on Jun 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mārupe score 1.6 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Riga Mariners score 3.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mārupe | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Riga Mariners | 3.0 | 1.1 | 7 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mārupe sit 6th in 1. Liga (32 points from 22 matches) and Riga Mariners sit 4th (47 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 22 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 50 | 27 | 47 |
| 6 | Mārupe | 22 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 37 | 34 | 32 |
A question about Mārupe vs Riga Mariners?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mārupe vs Riga Mariners?
- The Footlab AI model makes Riga Mariners the favourite at 59%, against 21% for a draw and 20% for Mārupe.
- Where and when is Mārupe vs Riga Mariners played?
- Mārupe vs Riga Mariners is played on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Jaunmārupes stadions, in the 1. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.