Mārupe vs Riga Mariners: prediction and stats
1. LigaRegular Season - 24Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Jaunmārupes stadions, Jaunmārupe
The Footlab model makes Riga Mariners the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 17% for Mārupe. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mārupe vs Riga Mariners?
Riga Mariners starts as the favourite with a 236-point Elo edge (1,622 vs 1,386).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mārupe have 8 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats; Riga Mariners have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Valmiera / BSS(away) | 1-4 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Super Nova 2(home) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leevon / PPK(home) | 0-1 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Skanste(away) | 2-4 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Rēzekne FA(away) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Tukums II(home) | 4-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Super Nova 2(away) | 3-0 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | JFK Ventspils(home) | 1-1 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Leevon / PPK(away) | 1-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 4, 2026 | JDFS Alberts(away) | 4-0 | 1. Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Mārupe win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Riga Mariners win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | Riga Mariners 2-0 Mārupe | 1. Liga |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Riga Mariners 3-1 Mārupe | 1. Liga |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Mārupe 1-2 Riga Mariners | 1. Liga |
Last archived meeting: Riga Mariners vs Mārupe on Jun 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mārupe score 1.6 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Riga Mariners score 2.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mārupe | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Riga Mariners | 2.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mārupe sit 6th in 1. Liga (16 points from 10 matches) and Riga Mariners sit 4th (22 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 10 | 22 |
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 34 | 15 | 35 |
| 6 | Mārupe | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 12 | 16 |
| 6 | Mārupe | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 30 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mārupe vs Riga Mariners?
- The Footlab model makes Riga Mariners the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 17% for Mārupe.
- Where and when is Mārupe vs Riga Mariners played?
- Mārupe vs Riga Mariners is played on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Jaunmārupes stadions, in the 1. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.