Sweden U21 vs North Macedonia U21: prediction and stats
UEFA U21 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 22Kick-off on October 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Örjans Vall, Halmstad
The Footlab model makes Sweden U21 the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for North Macedonia U21. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sweden U21 vs North Macedonia U21?
Sweden U21 starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (1,527 vs 1,420).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sweden U21 have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; North Macedonia U21 have 3, 1 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2026 | Finland U21(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Italy U21(home) | 0-4 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Montenegro U21(home) | 2-2 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Armenia U21(away) | 1-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 13, 2025 | North Macedonia U21(away) | 4-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Morocco U20(home) | 1-5 | Mediterranean Games |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Türkiye U20(away) | 0-3 | Mediterranean Games |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tunisia U21(away) | 0-0 | Mediterranean Games |
| Jun 8, 2026 | United States U20(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| May 30, 2026 | Bulgaria U21(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Sweden U21 win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 North Macedonia U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | North Macedonia U21 1-4 Sweden U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 26, 2024 | North Macedonia U21 0-2 Sweden U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Sep 8, 2023 | Sweden U21 0-1 North Macedonia U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
Last archived meeting: North Macedonia U21 vs Sweden U21 on Nov 13, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Sweden U21 score 2.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; North Macedonia U21 score 0.7 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden U21 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 5 | 5/15 | 11/15 |
| North Macedonia U21 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 2 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sweden U21 sit 4th in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification (10 points from 8 matches) and North Macedonia U21 sit 5th (6 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sweden U21 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 10 |
| 5 | North Macedonia U21 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sweden U21 vs North Macedonia U21?
- The Footlab model makes Sweden U21 the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for North Macedonia U21.
- Where and when is Sweden U21 vs North Macedonia U21 played?
- Sweden U21 vs North Macedonia U21 is played on October 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Örjans Vall, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.