Somalia vs Ghana: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 4Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Muqdisho Stadium, Mogadishu
The Footlab AI model makes Ghana the favourite at 57%, against 26% for a draw and 17% for Somalia. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Somalia vs Ghana?
Ghana starts as the favourite with a 274-point Elo edge (1,549 vs 1,275).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Somalia vs Ghana
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Somalia
4-3-3- 9B. Njie
- 10M. Suleiman
- 11A. Sabriye
- 14A. Sharif
- 8Abdulsamed Ahmed Abdullahi
- 10A. Musse
- 15A. Omar
- 19Faysal Omar
- 2M. Mohamed
- 3A. Gigli
- 1S. Dhadho
Ghana
4-3-3- 7A. Fatawu
- 10B. Thomas-Asante
- 9F. Afena-Gyan
- 8K. Sibo
- 3Caleb Marfo Yirenkyi
- 19E. Nuamah
- 14G. Mensah
- 18J. Opoku
- 21K. Peprah Oppong
- 4J. Adjetey
- 16B. Asare
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:43 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Somalia have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Ghana have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Ivory Coast(home) | 0-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Gambia(away) | 1-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Mauritius(away) | 0-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Mauritius(home) | 0-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Oman(away) | 0-0 | Arab Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Gambia(home) | 2-4 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Ivory Coast(away) | 0-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Colombia(away) | 0-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Croatia(away) | 1-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 23, 2026 | England(away) | 0-0 | World Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Somalia score 0.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Ghana score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Somalia | 0.4 | 1.4 | 5 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
| Ghana | 0.9 | 1.5 | 5 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Somalia sit 3rd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (0 points from 2 matches) and Ghana sit 4th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Somalia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 4 | Ghana | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
A question about Somalia vs Ghana?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Somalia vs Ghana?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ghana the favourite at 57%, against 26% for a draw and 17% for Somalia.
- Where and when is Somalia vs Ghana played?
- Somalia vs Ghana is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Muqdisho Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.