Zimbabwe vs Equatorial Guinea: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 4Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Francistown Stadium, Francistown
The Footlab model makes Zimbabwe the favourite at 41%, against 31% for a draw and 27% for Equatorial Guinea. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Zimbabwe vs Equatorial Guinea?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Zimbabwe (1,457) and Equatorial Guinea (1,498).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Zimbabwe have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Equatorial Guinea have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | India(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| May 26, 2026 | Nigeria(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Zambia U23(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Botswana(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies |
| Dec 29, 2025 | South Africa(home) | 2-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | Comoros(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Madagascar(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Kyrgyzstan(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Algeria(home) | 1-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Sudan(home) | 0-1 | Africa Cup of Nations |
How many goals should we expect?
Zimbabwe score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Equatorial Guinea score 0.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zimbabwe | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Equatorial Guinea | 0.9 | 1.2 | 3 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Zimbabwe sit 2nd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (9 points from 6 matches) and Equatorial Guinea sit 2nd (8 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Equatorial Guinea | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 8 |
| 2 | Zimbabwe | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Zimbabwe vs Equatorial Guinea?
- The Footlab model makes Zimbabwe the favourite at 41%, against 31% for a draw and 27% for Equatorial Guinea.
- Where and when is Zimbabwe vs Equatorial Guinea played?
- Zimbabwe vs Equatorial Guinea is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Francistown Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.