Sudan vs Senegal: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 4Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya, Nouakchott
The Footlab model makes Senegal the favourite at 47%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Sudan. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sudan vs Senegal?
Senegal starts as the favourite with a 282-point Elo edge (1,758 vs 1,476).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sudan have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Senegal have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | Senegal(away) | 1-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Burkina Faso(home) | 0-2 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Equatorial Guinea(away) | 1-0 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 24, 2025 | Algeria(away) | 0-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Bahrain(away) | 1-3 | Arab Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | Iraq(home) | 5-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Norway(away) | 2-3 | World Cup |
| Jun 16, 2026 | France(away) | 1-3 | World Cup |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Saudi Arabia(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | USA(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Sudan win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Senegal win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | Senegal 3-1 Sudan | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Sep 5, 2025 | Senegal 2-0 Sudan | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Aug 29, 2025 | Sudan 1-1 Senegal | African Nations Championship |
| Aug 19, 2025 | Sudan 0-0 Senegal | African Nations Championship |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Sudan 0-0 Senegal | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Oct 16, 2018 | Sudan 0-1 Senegal | Africa Cup of Nations |
How many goals should we expect?
Sudan score 0.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Senegal score 2.3 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudan | 0.4 | 1.4 | 4 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Senegal | 2.3 | 1.0 | 8 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sudan sit 2nd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (8 points from 6 matches) and Senegal sit 1st (16 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Senegal | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 16 |
| 2 | Sudan | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sudan vs Senegal?
- The Footlab model makes Senegal the favourite at 47%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Sudan.
- Where and when is Sudan vs Senegal played?
- Sudan vs Senegal is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.