Malawi vs Egypt: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 4Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Bingu National Stadium, Lilongwe
The Footlab AI model makes Egypt the favourite at 73%, against 19% for a draw and 8% for Malawi. The most likely score is 0-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Malawi vs Egypt?
Egypt starts as the favourite with a 271-point Elo edge (1,715 vs 1,445).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Malawi vs Egypt
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Malawi
5-4-1- 11C. Mphasi
- 8L. Njaliwa
- 7M. Mhango
- 14B. Singini
- 19G. Chirwa
- 3C. Petro
- 20E. Nyirenda
- 2M. Lameck
- 5D. Chembezi
- 5Nickson Nyasulu
- 16William Thole
Egypt
4-2-3-1- 22Omar Marmoush
- 11Mostafa Zico
- 8Emam Ashour
- 17Mohanad Lasheen
- 19Marwan Attia
- 12H. Hassan
- 3Mohamed Hany
- 5Rami Rabia
- 4Hossam Abdelmaguid
- 13Ahmed Abou El Fotouh
- 1Mostafa Shobeir
Known absences
Hamdi FathyOut · Muscle injury
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Malawi have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Egypt have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Angola(away) | 1-3 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | South Sudan(home) | 2-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Ethiopia(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Ethiopia(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Botswana(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | South Africa(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Sep 29, 2026 | South Sudan(away) | 5-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Angola(home) | 0-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Argentina(away) | 2-3 | World Cup |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Australia(away) | 1-1 | World Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Malawi wins, 0 draws, 2 Egypt wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2023 | Malawi 0-4 Egypt | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 24, 2023 | Egypt 2-0 Malawi | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
How many goals should we expect?
Malawi score 0.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Egypt score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malawi | 0.7 | 0.9 | 4 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Egypt | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Malawi sit 3rd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (3 points from 2 matches) and Egypt sit 1st (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Egypt | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Malawi | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
A question about Malawi vs Egypt?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Malawi vs Egypt?
- The Footlab AI model makes Egypt the favourite at 73%, against 19% for a draw and 8% for Malawi.
- Where and when is Malawi vs Egypt played?
- Malawi vs Egypt is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Bingu National Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.