Somalia vs Ivory Coast: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 2Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Muqdisho Stadium, Mogadishu
The Footlab model makes Ivory Coast the favourite at 53%, against 28% for a draw and 19% for Somalia. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Somalia vs Ivory Coast?
Ivory Coast is a heavy favourite: 1,741 Elo points against 1,281 — a 460-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Somalia have 2 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats; Ivory Coast have 11, 1 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Mauritius(away) | 0-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Mauritius(home) | 0-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Oman(away) | 0-0 | Arab Cup |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Bahrain(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Bahrain(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | Curaçao(away) | 2-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Germany(away) | 1-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Ecuador(home) | 1-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Philadelphia Union II(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 4, 2026 | France(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Somalia score 0.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Ivory Coast score 1.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Somalia | 0.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Ivory Coast | 1.9 | 0.7 | 9 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ivory Coast | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 12 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Somalia vs Ivory Coast?
- The Footlab model makes Ivory Coast the favourite at 53%, against 28% for a draw and 19% for Somalia.
- Where and when is Somalia vs Ivory Coast played?
- Somalia vs Ivory Coast is played on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Muqdisho Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.