Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 34Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Itaipava Arena Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco
The Footlab model makes Sport Recife the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Fortaleza EC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Sport Recife (1,882) and Fortaleza EC (1,942).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sport Recife have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Fortaleza EC have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | America Mineiro(home) | 3-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Avai(away) | 1-2 | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Londrina(home) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vila Nova(away) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Cuiaba(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Criciuma(away) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | São Bernardo(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Juventude(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cuiaba(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Palmeiras(home) | 3-2 | Copa Do Brasil |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Sport Recife win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Fortaleza EC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2026 | Fortaleza EC 2-1 Sport Recife | Serie B |
| May 28, 2026 | Sport Recife 0-2 Fortaleza EC | Copa do Nordeste |
| May 21, 2026 | Fortaleza EC 1-2 Sport Recife | Copa do Nordeste |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Fortaleza EC 2-0 Sport Recife | Copa do Nordeste |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Fortaleza EC 1-0 Sport Recife | Serie A |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Sport Recife 0-0 Fortaleza EC | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife on Jun 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sport Recife score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Fortaleza EC score 1.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Recife | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Fortaleza EC | 1.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sport Recife sit 6th in Serie B (38 points from 24 matches) and Fortaleza EC sit 5th (40 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Fortaleza EC | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 27 | 21 | 40 |
| 6 | Sport Recife | 24 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 32 | 22 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
- The Footlab model makes Sport Recife the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Fortaleza EC.
- Where and when is Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC played?
- Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC is played on October 17, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.