São Bernardo vs Criciuma: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 34Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Primeiro de Maio, São Bernardo do Campo, São Paulo
The Footlab model makes Criciuma the favourite at 34%, against 32% for a draw and 34% for São Bernardo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win São Bernardo vs Criciuma?
A very open match: only 76 Elo points separate São Bernardo (1,831) and Criciuma (1,907).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, São Bernardo have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Criciuma have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nautico Recife(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Fortaleza EC(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Botafogo SP(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Operario-PR(away) | 3-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Ceara(home) | 3-4 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Fortaleza EC(home) | 0-2 | Serie B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Botafogo SP(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Goias(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 0-2 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Nautico Recife(home) | 0-0 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 São Bernardo win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Criciuma win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | Criciuma 1-0 São Bernardo | Serie B |
Last archived meeting: Criciuma vs São Bernardo on Jun 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
São Bernardo score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Criciuma score 1.0 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Bernardo | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| Criciuma | 1.0 | 0.6 | 8 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
São Bernardo sit 13th in Serie B (32 points from 24 matches) and Criciuma sit 1st (44 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Criciuma | 24 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 25 | 17 | 44 |
| 13 | São Bernardo | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 27 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for São Bernardo vs Criciuma?
- The Footlab model makes Criciuma the favourite at 34%, against 32% for a draw and 34% for São Bernardo.
- Where and when is São Bernardo vs Criciuma played?
- São Bernardo vs Criciuma is played on October 17, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Primeiro de Maio, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.