Avai vs Athletic Club: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 34Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva, Florianópolis, Santa Catarina
The Footlab model makes Avai the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Athletic Club. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Avai vs Athletic Club?
A very open match: only 24 Elo points separate Avai (1,837) and Athletic Club (1,812).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Avai have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; Athletic Club have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Ponte Preta(away) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Sport Recife(home) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Operario-PR(away) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 11, 2026 | CRB(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Juventude(away) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Novorizontino(home) | 1-4 | Serie B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | CRB(home) | 0-2 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | America Mineiro(away) | 3-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Criciuma(home) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Ponte Preta(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Avai win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Athletic Club win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2026 | Athletic Club 1-0 Avai | Serie B |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Avai 2-1 Athletic Club | Serie B |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Athletic Club 4-0 Avai | Serie B |
Last archived meeting: Athletic Club vs Avai on Jun 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Avai score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Athletic Club score 1.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avai | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Athletic Club | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Avai sit 16th in Serie B (29 points from 24 matches) and Athletic Club sit 9th (34 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Athletic Club | 24 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 34 |
| 16 | Avai | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 30 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Avai vs Athletic Club?
- The Footlab model makes Avai the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Athletic Club.
- Where and when is Avai vs Athletic Club played?
- Avai vs Athletic Club is played on October 17, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.