Where and when is Stal Mielec vs Pogoń Siedlce played?

Stal Mielec vs Pogoń Siedlce is played on March 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato, in the I Liga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Stal Mielec vs Pogoń Siedlce: prediction and stats

I LigaRegular Season - 23Kick-off on March 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato, Mielec

Stal Mielec

Pogoń Siedlce

The Footlab model makes Stal Mielec the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Pogoń Siedlce. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Stal Mielec vs Pogoń Siedlce?

A very open match: only 63 Elo points separate Stal Mielec (1,821) and Pogoń Siedlce (1,759).

Stal Mielec win53 %

Draw24 %

Pogoń Siedlce win22 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stal Mielec have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Pogoń Siedlce have 4, 3 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Stal Mielec
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	ŁKS Łódź(away)	0-4	I Liga
Aug 16, 2026	Polonia Bytom(home)	5-2	I Liga
Aug 8, 2026	Stal Rzeszów(home)	1-1	I Liga
Aug 2, 2026	Podbeskidzie(home)	3-3	I Liga
Jul 26, 2026	Unia Skierniewice(away)	2-1	I Liga

Pogoń Siedlce
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Lechia Gdansk(away)	0-1	I Liga
Aug 15, 2026	Polonia Warszawa(home)	1-0	I Liga
Aug 7, 2026	Polonia Bytom(away)	2-2	I Liga
Aug 1, 2026	Nieciecza(home)	1-2	I Liga
Jul 25, 2026	ŁKS Łódź(home)	1-1	I Liga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Stal Mielec win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Pogoń Siedlce win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 15, 2026	Pogoń Siedlce 1-3 Stal Mielec	I Liga
Nov 8, 2025	Stal Mielec 0-0 Pogoń Siedlce	I Liga

Last archived meeting: Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Mielec on May 15, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Stal Mielec score 2.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Pogoń Siedlce score 1.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Stal Mielec	2.1	1.9	0	13/15	12/15
Pogoń Siedlce	1.1	1.8	3	8/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Stal Mielec sit 7th in I Liga (8 points from 5 matches) and Pogoń Siedlce sit 14th (5 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
7	Stal Mielec	5	2	2	1	11	11	8
14	Pogoń Siedlce	5	1	2	2	5	6	5

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Stal Mielec vs Pogoń Siedlce?: The Footlab model makes Stal Mielec the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Pogoń Siedlce.
Where and when is Stal Mielec vs Pogoń Siedlce played?: Stal Mielec vs Pogoń Siedlce is played on March 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato, in the I Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.