Match

Stal Mielec vs Pogoń Siedlce: prediction and stats

I LigaMatchday 23Kick-off on March 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato, Mielec

Stal MielecPogoń Siedlce

The Footlab AI model makes Stal Mielec the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Pogoń Siedlce. The most likely score is 1-1. If Stal Mielec wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 5,760 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Stal Mielec vs Pogoń Siedlce?

A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Stal Mielec (1,743) and Pogoń Siedlce (1,714).

46%27%27%
Stal Mielec winDrawPogoń Siedlce win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Stal Mielec vs Pogoń Siedlce

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Stal Mielec

4-4-1-1
  1. 78K. Cybulski
  1. 32F. Gerbowski
  2. 7M. Cebula
  3. 18P. Wlazło
  4. 19T. Gmur
  5. 23K. Getinger
  1. 44Israel Puerto
  2. 14K. Kościelny
  3. 94B. Kwiecień
  4. 5H. Matynia
  1. 31A. Chichkan

Pogoń Siedlce

4-3-3
  1. 9M. Rosołek
  2. 56C. Demianiuk
  3. 21S. Kobusiński
  1. 7D. Szuprytowski
  2. 16B. Poczobut
  3. 31E. Dzięcioł
  1. 4P. Szur
  2. 2K. Miś
  3. 26F. Kendzia
  4. 29Ł. Trepka
  1. 57J. Lemanowicz

Computed on November 14, 2026 at 06:19 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stal Mielec have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Pogoń Siedlce have 6, 3 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Stal Mielec
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 8, 2026Ruch Chorzów(home)2-0I Liga
Oct 30, 2026Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki(away)1-0I Liga
Oct 24, 2026Chrobry Głogów(home)0-0I Liga
Oct 17, 2026Miedz Legnica(away)0-3I Liga
Oct 11, 2026Warta Poznań(home)2-1I Liga
Pogoń Siedlce
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 8, 2026Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki(home)2-1I Liga
Nov 3, 2026Ruch Chorzów(home)1-1I Liga
Oct 28, 2026Tychy 71(away)2-4Cup
Oct 25, 2026Odra Opole(away)1-0I Liga
Oct 18, 2026Stal Rzeszów(home)3-4I Liga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Stal Mielec win, 1 draw, 1 Pogoń Siedlce win.

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 29, 2026Pogoń Siedlce 2-0 Stal MielecI Liga
May 15, 2026Pogoń Siedlce 1-3 Stal MielecI Liga
Nov 8, 2025Stal Mielec 0-0 Pogoń SiedlceI Liga

Last archived meeting: Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Mielec on Aug 29, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Stal Mielec score 1.5 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Pogoń Siedlce score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Stal Mielec1.52.039/159/15
Pogoń Siedlce1.41.549/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Stal Mielec sit 11th in I Liga (19 points from 14 matches) and Pogoń Siedlce sit 10th (19 points from 14 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
10Pogoń Siedlce14545171719
11Stal Mielec14545192719

A question about Stal Mielec vs Pogoń Siedlce?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Stal Mielec vs Pogoń Siedlce?
The Footlab AI model makes Stal Mielec the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Pogoń Siedlce.
Where and when is Stal Mielec vs Pogoń Siedlce played?
Stal Mielec vs Pogoń Siedlce is played on March 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato, in the I Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Stal Mielec and Pogoń Siedlce