Where and when is Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Mielec played?

Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Mielec is played on August 29, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadion ROSRRiT, in the I Liga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Mielec: prediction and stats

I LigaRegular Season - 6Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadion ROSRRiT, Siedlce

Pogoń Siedlce

Stal Mielec

The Footlab model makes Stal Mielec the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Pogoń Siedlce. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Mielec?

A very open match: only 75 Elo points separate Pogoń Siedlce (1,754) and Stal Mielec (1,830).

Pogoń Siedlce win34 %

Draw27 %

Stal Mielec win39 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pogoń Siedlce have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Stal Mielec have 7, 3 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Pogoń Siedlce
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Lechia Gdansk(away)	0-1	I Liga
Aug 15, 2026	Polonia Warszawa(home)	1-0	I Liga
Aug 7, 2026	Polonia Bytom(away)	2-2	I Liga
Aug 1, 2026	Nieciecza(home)	1-2	I Liga
Jul 25, 2026	ŁKS Łódź(home)	1-1	I Liga

Stal Mielec
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	ŁKS Łódź(away)	0-4	I Liga
Aug 16, 2026	Polonia Bytom(home)	5-2	I Liga
Aug 8, 2026	Stal Rzeszów(home)	1-1	I Liga
Aug 2, 2026	Podbeskidzie(home)	3-3	I Liga
Jul 26, 2026	Unia Skierniewice(away)	2-1	I Liga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Pogoń Siedlce win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Stal Mielec win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 15, 2026	Pogoń Siedlce 1-3 Stal Mielec	I Liga
Nov 8, 2025	Stal Mielec 0-0 Pogoń Siedlce	I Liga

Last archived meeting: Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Mielec on May 15, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Pogoń Siedlce score 1.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Stal Mielec score 2.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Pogoń Siedlce	1.1	1.8	3	8/15	9/15
Stal Mielec	2.1	1.9	0	13/15	12/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Pogoń Siedlce sit 13th in I Liga (5 points from 5 matches) and Stal Mielec sit 7th (8 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
7	Stal Mielec	5	2	2	1	11	11	8
13	Pogoń Siedlce	5	1	2	2	5	6	5

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Mielec?: The Footlab model makes Stal Mielec the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Pogoń Siedlce.
Where and when is Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Mielec played?: Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Mielec is played on August 29, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadion ROSRRiT, in the I Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.