Stevenage vs Sheffield Wednesday: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The Lamex Stadium, Stevenage, Hertfordshire
The Footlab model makes Stevenage the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Sheffield Wednesday. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stevenage vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Stevenage starts as the favourite with a 164-point Elo edge (1,831 vs 1,667).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stevenage have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Sheffield Wednesday have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Oxford United(home) | 1-2 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Burton Albion(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wycombe(away) | 2-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Colchester(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Bradford(home) | 0-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Leyton Orient(away) | 2-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bolton(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Oldham(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Accrington ST(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Stevenage win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Sheffield Wednesday win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2012 | Sheffield Wednesday 0-1 Stevenage | League One |
| Sep 13, 2011 | Stevenage 5-1 Sheffield Wednesday | League One |
Last archived meeting: Sheffield Wednesday vs Stevenage on Feb 14, 2012
How many goals should we expect?
Stevenage score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Sheffield Wednesday score 0.8 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevenage | 0.9 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Sheffield Wednesday | 0.8 | 1.6 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stevenage sit 19th in League One (1 points from 2 matches) and Sheffield Wednesday sit 12th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Sheffield Wednesday | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 19 | Stevenage | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stevenage vs Sheffield Wednesday?
- The Footlab model makes Stevenage the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Sheffield Wednesday.
- Where and when is Stevenage vs Sheffield Wednesday played?
- Stevenage vs Sheffield Wednesday is played on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The Lamex Stadium, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.