Stranraer vs Kilmarnock II: prediction and stats
Challenge CupGroup Stage - 6Kick-off on October 13, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Stair Park, Stranraer
The Footlab model makes Stranraer the favourite at 55%, against 21% for a draw and 24% for Kilmarnock II. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stranraer vs Kilmarnock II?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Stranraer (1,542) and Kilmarnock II (1,527).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stranraer have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Kilmarnock II have 3, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stirling Albion(away) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Spartans(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Alloa Athletic(away) | 1-2 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Annan Athletic(home) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Clyde(away) | 1-3 | League Two |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | East Kilbride(away) | 3-5 | Challenge Cup |
| Nov 11, 2025 | Annan Athletic(away) | 0-6 | Challenge Cup |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Clyde(away) | 1-2 | Challenge Cup |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Alloa Athletic(away) | 0-3 | Challenge Cup |
| Sep 6, 2025 | Stenhousemuir(away) | 0-4 | Challenge Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Stranraer score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Kilmarnock II score 1.7 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stranraer | 1.0 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Kilmarnock II | 1.7 | 2.7 | 1 | 7/12 | 10/12 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stranraer vs Kilmarnock II?
- The Footlab model makes Stranraer the favourite at 55%, against 21% for a draw and 24% for Kilmarnock II.
- Where and when is Stranraer vs Kilmarnock II played?
- Stranraer vs Kilmarnock II is played on October 13, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Stair Park, in the Challenge Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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