FK Liepaja vs Super Nova: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 35Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Stadions Daugava mākslīgas laukums, Liepāja
The Footlab AI model makes FK Liepaja the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Super Nova. The most likely score is 1-1. If FK Liepaja wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FK Liepaja vs Super Nova?
FK Liepaja starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (1,695 vs 1,589).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for FK Liepaja vs Super Nova
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
FK Liepaja
4-2-3-1- 18J. Ede
- 5L. Strumia
- 7A. Ogunniyi
- 28A. Korobenko
- 23A. Haïdara
- 70D. Patijčuks
- 2B. Straalman
- 34João Pedro
- 35V. Sorokins
- 4M. Martins
- 24D. Ošs
Super Nova
4-2-3-1- 10V. Lizunovs
- 8I. Patrikejevs
- 9Bamba
- 6E. Emsis
- 15R. Ķiršs
- 24R. Šitjakovs
- 25M. Ošs
- 5J. Cīrulis
- 3R. Iida
- 16K. Romanovs
- 90D. Veisbuks
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:14 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FK Liepaja have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Super Nova have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Auda(home) | 2-3 | Virsliga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(home) | 0-0 | Virsliga |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Ogre United(away) | 2-2 | Virsliga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Rīgas FS(away) | 0-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Riga(home) | 3-2 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Ogre United(away) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Riga(home) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Tukums(home) | 1-0 | Virsliga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | FS Jelgava(away) | 1-0 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 FK Liepaja wins, 0 draws, 2 Super Nova wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Super Nova 1-2 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| Jun 12, 2026 | FK Liepaja 2-1 Super Nova | Virsliga |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Super Nova 1-2 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Super Nova 3-0 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| Aug 25, 2025 | FK Liepaja 0-3 Super Nova | Virsliga |
| Jun 17, 2025 | Super Nova 1-3 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
Last archived meeting: Super Nova vs FK Liepaja on Aug 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FK Liepaja score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Super Nova score 0.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Liepaja | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Super Nova | 0.8 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FK Liepaja sit 4th in Virsliga (43 points from 32 matches) and Super Nova sit 6th (38 points from 31 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 43 | 46 | 43 |
| 6 | Super Nova | 31 | 11 | 5 | 15 | 31 | 41 | 38 |
A question about FK Liepaja vs Super Nova?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FK Liepaja vs Super Nova?
- The Footlab AI model makes FK Liepaja the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Super Nova.
- Where and when is FK Liepaja vs Super Nova played?
- FK Liepaja vs Super Nova is played on November 1, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Stadions Daugava mākslīgas laukums, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.