FK Liepaja vs Super Nova: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 35Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Stadions Daugava mākslīgas laukums, Liepāja
The Footlab model makes FK Liepaja the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Super Nova. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FK Liepaja vs Super Nova?
FK Liepaja starts as the favourite with a 122-point Elo edge (1,676 vs 1,553).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FK Liepaja have 8 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats; Super Nova have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 3-1 | Virsliga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Super Nova(away) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Tukums(away) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Austria Vienna(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | FS Jelgava(away) | 2-0 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(home) | 0-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Rīgas FS(home) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FK Liepaja(home) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 2-0 | Virsliga |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 FK Liepaja win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Super Nova win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Super Nova 1-2 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| Jun 12, 2026 | FK Liepaja 2-1 Super Nova | Virsliga |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Super Nova 1-2 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Super Nova 3-0 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| Aug 25, 2025 | FK Liepaja 0-3 Super Nova | Virsliga |
| Jun 17, 2025 | Super Nova 1-3 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
Last archived meeting: Super Nova vs FK Liepaja on Aug 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FK Liepaja score 1.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Super Nova score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Liepaja | 1.5 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Super Nova | 1.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FK Liepaja sit 5th in Virsliga (37 points from 26 matches) and Super Nova sit 6th (28 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | FK Liepaja | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 36 | 38 | 37 |
| 6 | Super Nova | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 26 | 37 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FK Liepaja vs Super Nova?
- The Footlab model makes FK Liepaja the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Super Nova.
- Where and when is FK Liepaja vs Super Nova played?
- FK Liepaja vs Super Nova is played on November 1, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Stadions Daugava mākslīgas laukums, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.