Tochigi SC vs Sagamihara: prediction and stats
J3 LeagueRegular Season - 20Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Kanseki Stadium, Utsunomiya
The Footlab model makes Tochigi SC the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Sagamihara. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tochigi SC vs Sagamihara?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Tochigi SC (1,729) and Sagamihara (1,770).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tochigi SC have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Sagamihara have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Kawasaki Frontale(away) | 1-3 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kitakyushu(home) | 2-2 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Urayasu(home) | 2-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Roasso Kumamoto(away) | 0-0 | J3 League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kanazawa(home) | 3-2 | J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Kanazawa(home) | 2-1 | J3 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Thespakusatsu Gunma(away) | 4-1 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Roasso Kumamoto(home) | 0-0 | J3 League |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Roasso Kumamoto(home) | 3-0 | J2/J3 League |
| May 30, 2026 | Fujieda MYFC(home) | 4-3 | J2/J3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Tochigi SC win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Sagamihara win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Tochigi SC 0-2 Sagamihara | J2/J3 League |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Sagamihara 4-0 Tochigi SC | J2/J3 League |
| Jul 20, 2025 | Tochigi SC 1-2 Sagamihara | J3 League |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Sagamihara 1-0 Tochigi SC | J3 League |
| Aug 9, 2021 | Sagamihara 0-0 Tochigi SC | J2 League |
| Apr 11, 2021 | Tochigi SC 0-0 Sagamihara | J2 League |
Last archived meeting: Tochigi SC vs Sagamihara on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tochigi SC score 1.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Sagamihara score 1.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tochigi SC | 1.0 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Sagamihara | 1.8 | 1.5 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tochigi SC sit 8th in J3 League (5 points from 3 matches) and Sagamihara sit 3rd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sagamihara | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Tochigi SC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tochigi SC vs Sagamihara?
- The Footlab model makes Tochigi SC the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Sagamihara.
- Where and when is Tochigi SC vs Sagamihara played?
- Tochigi SC vs Sagamihara is played on November 28, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Kanseki Stadium, in the J3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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- Nov 28, 2026Kagoshima UnitedvsKamatamare Sanuki
- Nov 28, 2026Fukushima UnitedvsGainare Tottori
- Nov 28, 2026Parceiro NaganovsKitakyushu
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