Where and when is Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma played?

Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma is played on October 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Sunpro Alwin Stadium, in the J3 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma: prediction and stats

J3 LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Sunpro Alwin Stadium, Matsumoto

Matsumoto Yamaga

Thespakusatsu Gunma

The Footlab model makes Matsumoto Yamaga the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Thespakusatsu Gunma. The most likely score is 2-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?

A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Matsumoto Yamaga (1,701) and Thespakusatsu Gunma (1,663).

Matsumoto Yamaga win57 %

Draw22 %

Thespakusatsu Gunma win22 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Matsumoto Yamaga have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Thespakusatsu Gunma have 6, 1 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Matsumoto Yamaga
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Ehime FC(home)	2-2	J3 League
Aug 16, 2026	Biwako Shiga(home)	2-3	J3 League
Aug 8, 2026	Kochi United(away)	0-0	J3 League
Jul 25, 2026	Ventforet Kofu(home)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jun 6, 2026	Nara Club(home)	0-2	J2/J3 League

Thespakusatsu Gunma
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 26, 2026	Tokyo Verdy(away)	1-4	Emperor Cup
Aug 22, 2026	Biwako Shiga(home)	2-3	J3 League
Aug 19, 2026	Tohoku Gakuin University(away)	3-1	Emperor Cup
Aug 15, 2026	Sagamihara(home)	1-4	J3 League
Aug 8, 2026	Kagoshima United(away)	0-1	J3 League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Matsumoto Yamaga win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Thespakusatsu Gunma win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Nov 23, 2025	Thespakusatsu Gunma 6-2 Matsumoto Yamaga	J3 League
Jul 5, 2025	Matsumoto Yamaga 1-3 Thespakusatsu Gunma	J3 League
Oct 30, 2021	Thespakusatsu Gunma 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga	J2 League
Apr 25, 2021	Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 Thespakusatsu Gunma	J2 League
Dec 2, 2020	Thespakusatsu Gunma 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga	J2 League
Jul 19, 2020	Matsumoto Yamaga 2-0 Thespakusatsu Gunma	J2 League

Last archived meeting: Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Matsumoto Yamaga on Nov 23, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Matsumoto Yamaga score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Thespakusatsu Gunma score 1.7 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Matsumoto Yamaga	1.5	1.2	4	8/15	8/15
Thespakusatsu Gunma	1.7	1.9	2	11/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Matsumoto Yamaga sit 16th in J3 League (2 points from 3 matches) and Thespakusatsu Gunma sit 20th (0 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
16	Matsumoto Yamaga	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
20	Thespakusatsu Gunma	3	0	0	3	3	8	0

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?: The Footlab model makes Matsumoto Yamaga the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Thespakusatsu Gunma.
Where and when is Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma played?: Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma is played on October 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Sunpro Alwin Stadium, in the J3 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.