Match

Tochigi SC vs Montedio Yamagata: prediction and stats

J-League CupRound of 128Kick-off on September 9, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Kanseki Stadium, Utsunomiya

Tochigi SCMontedio Yamagata

The Footlab model makes Montedio Yamagata the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Tochigi SC. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Tochigi SC vs Montedio Yamagata?

A very open match: only 62 Elo points separate Tochigi SC (1,729) and Montedio Yamagata (1,791).

Tochigi SC win33 %
Draw25 %
Montedio Yamagata win42 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tochigi SC have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Montedio Yamagata have 6, 1 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Tochigi SC
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Kitakyushu(home)2-2J3 League
Aug 19, 2026Urayasu(home)2-0Emperor Cup
Aug 15, 2026Roasso Kumamoto(away)0-0J3 League
Aug 9, 2026Kanazawa(home)3-2J3 League
Jun 7, 2026Kitakyushu(home)2-1J2/J3 League
Montedio Yamagata
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Yokohama FC(home)2-0J2 League
Aug 15, 2026Shonan Bellmare(away)0-1J2 League
Aug 9, 2026Tochigi City(home)2-0J2 League
Jul 25, 2026Albirex Niigata(away)4-3Friendlies Clubs
Jun 7, 2026Oita Trinita(away)0-1J2/J3 League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Tochigi SC win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Montedio Yamagata win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
May 3, 2026Montedio Yamagata 2-2 Tochigi SCJ2/J3 League
Feb 15, 2026Tochigi SC 1-2 Montedio YamagataJ2/J3 League
Jul 6, 2024Montedio Yamagata 1-0 Tochigi SCJ2 League
Mar 3, 2024Tochigi SC 1-3 Montedio YamagataJ2 League
Oct 8, 2023Montedio Yamagata 2-0 Tochigi SCJ2 League
Apr 12, 2023Tochigi SC 2-1 Montedio YamagataJ2 League

Last archived meeting: Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi SC on May 3, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Tochigi SC score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Montedio Yamagata score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Tochigi SC1.31.158/157/15
Montedio Yamagata1.31.446/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Tochigi SC vs Montedio Yamagata?
The Footlab model makes Montedio Yamagata the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Tochigi SC.
Where and when is Tochigi SC vs Montedio Yamagata played?
Tochigi SC vs Montedio Yamagata is played on September 9, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Kanseki Stadium, in the J-League Cup.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Tochigi SC and Montedio Yamagata

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