Where and when is Tochigi SC vs Renofa Yamaguchi played?

Tochigi SC vs Renofa Yamaguchi is played on October 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Kanseki Stadium, in the J3 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Tochigi SC vs Renofa Yamaguchi: prediction and stats

J3 LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Kanseki Stadium, Utsunomiya

Tochigi SC

Renofa Yamaguchi

The Footlab model makes Tochigi SC the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Renofa Yamaguchi. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Tochigi SC vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate Tochigi SC (1,727) and Renofa Yamaguchi (1,715).

Tochigi SC win45 %

Draw27 %

Renofa Yamaguchi win28 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tochigi SC have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Renofa Yamaguchi have 6, 3 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Tochigi SC
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Kitakyushu(home)	2-2	J3 League
Aug 19, 2026	Urayasu(home)	2-0	Emperor Cup
Aug 15, 2026	Roasso Kumamoto(away)	0-0	J3 League
Aug 9, 2026	Kanazawa(home)	3-2	J3 League
Jun 7, 2026	Kitakyushu(home)	2-1	J2/J3 League

Renofa Yamaguchi
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Nara Club(away)	1-3	J3 League
Aug 19, 2026	Kagoshima United(away)	1-2	Emperor Cup
Aug 15, 2026	FC Ryukyu(home)	1-0	J3 League
Aug 8, 2026	Parceiro Nagano(away)	0-1	J3 League
Jun 6, 2026	Yokohama FC(away)	1-2	J2/J3 League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Tochigi SC win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Renofa Yamaguchi win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Aug 10, 2024	Renofa Yamaguchi 4-3 Tochigi SC	J2 League
Apr 7, 2024	Tochigi SC 0-0 Renofa Yamaguchi	J2 League
Jun 24, 2023	Tochigi SC 0-0 Renofa Yamaguchi	J2 League
Apr 8, 2023	Renofa Yamaguchi 1-1 Tochigi SC	J2 League
Jul 23, 2022	Tochigi SC 2-1 Renofa Yamaguchi	J2 League
Apr 30, 2022	Renofa Yamaguchi 2-1 Tochigi SC	J2 League

Last archived meeting: Renofa Yamaguchi vs Tochigi SC on Aug 10, 2024

How many goals should we expect?

Tochigi SC score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Renofa Yamaguchi score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Tochigi SC	1.3	1.1	5	8/15	7/15
Renofa Yamaguchi	1.5	1.5	2	11/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Tochigi SC sit 8th in J3 League (5 points from 3 matches) and Renofa Yamaguchi sit 13th (3 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
8	Tochigi SC	3	1	2	0	5	4	5
13	Renofa Yamaguchi	3	1	0	2	2	4	3

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Tochigi SC vs Renofa Yamaguchi?: The Footlab model makes Tochigi SC the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Renofa Yamaguchi.
Where and when is Tochigi SC vs Renofa Yamaguchi played?: Tochigi SC vs Renofa Yamaguchi is played on October 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Kanseki Stadium, in the J3 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.