Tondela vs Alverca: prediction and stats
Taça de PortugalRound of 64Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela
The Footlab AI model makes Alverca the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Tondela. The most likely score is 1-1. If Alverca wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,404 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tondela vs Alverca?
A very open match: only 97 Elo points separate Tondela (2,041) and Alverca (2,138).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Tondela vs Alverca
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Tondela
4-2-3-1- 19Tómané
- 20Hugo Félix
- 7Cascavel
- 97Cícero
- 37Sarará
- 8Hélder Tavares
- 15Carraça
- 12Zé Ricardo
- 4Christian Marques
- 6Farru
- 28Araujo Carlos
Alverca
3-4-3- 22Figueiredo
- 10Chiquinho
- 19D. Camara
- 55Francisco Chissumba
- 6D. Gui
- 35Rayan
- 20Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques
- 12I. James
- 21Sergi Gómez
- 14S. Baseya
- 31Matheus Mendes
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 06:03 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tondela have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Alverca have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Torreense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Imortal Albufeira(away) | 5-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Portimonense(away) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | FC Porto B(home) | 3-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 28, 2026 | União de Leiria(away) | 0-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 4-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rio Ave(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Nacional(away) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Tondela wins, 2 draws, 2 Alverca wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2026 | Tondela 1-1 Alverca | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2025 | Alverca 1-0 Tondela | Primeira Liga |
| May 11, 2025 | Tondela 1-2 Alverca | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 12, 2025 | Alverca 1-1 Tondela | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Tondela score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Alverca score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tondela | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Alverca | 1.3 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Tondela vs Alverca?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tondela vs Alverca?
- The Footlab AI model makes Alverca the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Tondela.
- Where and when is Tondela vs Alverca played?
- Tondela vs Alverca is played on October 18, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio João Cardoso, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.