Austin vs Real Salt Lake: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 35Kick-off on October 29, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)Q2 Stadium, Austin, Texas
The Footlab model makes Real Salt Lake the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Austin. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Austin vs Real Salt Lake?
A very open match: only 66 Elo points separate Austin (1,744) and Real Salt Lake (1,810).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Austin have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Real Salt Lake have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(home) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Seattle Sounders(away) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 17, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Club America(away) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Puebla(home) | 3-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Orlando City SC(away) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 3-4 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Minnesota United FC(home) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 12, 2026 | FC Juarez(home) | 3-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atlante FC(home) | 4-0 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Austin win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Real Salt Lake win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Real Salt Lake 2-1 Austin | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Real Salt Lake 3-1 Austin | Major League Soccer |
| May 29, 2025 | Austin 1-1 Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Austin 2-2 Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer |
| Jun 2, 2024 | Real Salt Lake 5-1 Austin | Major League Soccer |
| Jun 4, 2023 | Austin 1-2 Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: Real Salt Lake vs Austin on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Austin score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Real Salt Lake score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin | 1.3 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Real Salt Lake | 1.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Austin sit 14th in Major League Soccer (21 points from 21 matches) and Real Salt Lake sit 8th (28 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Real Salt Lake | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 34 | 32 | 28 |
| 14 | Austin | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 26 | 40 | 21 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Austin vs Real Salt Lake?
- The Footlab model makes Real Salt Lake the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Austin.
- Where and when is Austin vs Real Salt Lake played?
- Austin vs Real Salt Lake is played on October 29, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Q2 Stadium, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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