Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 27Kick-off on September 10, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)Shell Energy Stadium, Houston, Texas
The Footlab model makes Houston Dynamo the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Real Salt Lake. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate Houston Dynamo (1,883) and Real Salt Lake (1,840).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Houston Dynamo have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats; Real Salt Lake have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Vancouver Whitecaps(away) | 1-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Los Angeles Galaxy(home) | 1-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 8, 2026 | New England Revolution(away) | 2-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sporting Kansas City(away) | 2-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Austin(home) | 3-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 3-4 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Minnesota United FC(home) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 12, 2026 | FC Juarez(home) | 3-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atlante FC(home) | 4-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Tigres UANL(away) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Houston Dynamo win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Real Salt Lake win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2026 | Real Salt Lake 3-0 Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 13, 2025 | Real Salt Lake 1-0 Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Houston Dynamo 1-2 Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Houston Dynamo 4-1 Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 6, 2024 | Houston Dynamo 3-0 Real Salt Lake | Leagues Cup |
| Jul 4, 2024 | Real Salt Lake 3-2 Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: Real Salt Lake vs Houston Dynamo on May 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Houston Dynamo score 1.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Real Salt Lake score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo | 1.7 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Real Salt Lake | 1.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Houston Dynamo sit 1st in Major League Soccer (38 points from 20 matches) and Real Salt Lake sit 8th (28 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Dynamo | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 29 | 24 | 38 |
| 8 | Real Salt Lake | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 33 | 30 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake?
- The Footlab model makes Houston Dynamo the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Real Salt Lake.
- Where and when is Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake played?
- Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake is played on September 10, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Shell Energy Stadium, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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