Where and when is Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC played?

Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC is played on October 14, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at BMO Field, in the Major League Soccer.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC: prediction and stats

Major League SoccerRegular Season - 32Kick-off on October 14, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)BMO Field, Toronto, Ontario

Toronto FC

Orlando City SC

The Footlab model makes Toronto FC the favourite at 50%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Orlando City SC. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC?

A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate Toronto FC (1,804) and Orlando City SC (1,786).

Toronto FC win50 %

Draw23 %

Orlando City SC win26 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toronto FC have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; Orlando City SC have 7, 3 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Toronto FC
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Inter Miami(away)	2-1	Major League Soccer
Aug 19, 2026	Charlotte(home)	3-3	Major League Soccer
Aug 15, 2026	New England Revolution(home)	2-1	Major League Soccer
Jul 31, 2026	New York City FC(away)	1-1	Major League Soccer
Jul 25, 2026	DC United(away)	1-2	Major League Soccer

Orlando City SC
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Real Salt Lake(home)	2-1	Major League Soccer
Aug 19, 2026	Chicago Fire(home)	1-2	Major League Soccer
Aug 15, 2026	FC Cincinnati(home)	1-1	Major League Soccer
Aug 12, 2026	Atletico San Luis(home)	2-2	Leagues Cup
Aug 8, 2026	Leon(home)	1-2	Leagues Cup

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Toronto FC win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Orlando City SC win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Oct 18, 2025	Toronto FC 4-2 Orlando City SC	Major League Soccer
Mar 2, 2025	Orlando City SC 4-2 Toronto FC	Major League Soccer
Jul 3, 2024	Toronto FC 1-2 Orlando City SC	Major League Soccer
Apr 27, 2024	Orlando City SC 1-2 Toronto FC	Major League Soccer
Oct 21, 2023	Toronto FC 0-2 Orlando City SC	Major League Soccer
Jul 4, 2023	Orlando City SC 4-0 Toronto FC	Major League Soccer

Last archived meeting: Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC on Oct 18, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Toronto FC score 1.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Orlando City SC score 2.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Toronto FC	1.5	1.9	2	13/15	11/15
Orlando City SC	2.1	1.9	2	12/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Toronto FC sit 10th in Major League Soccer (24 points from 21 matches) and Orlando City SC sit 9th (24 points from 21 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
9	Orlando City SC	21	7	3	11	34	51	24
10	Toronto FC	21	5	9	7	31	37	24

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC?: The Footlab model makes Toronto FC the favourite at 50%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Orlando City SC.
Where and when is Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC played?: Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC is played on October 14, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at BMO Field, in the Major League Soccer.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.