Match

Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC: prediction and stats

Major League SoccerRegular Season - 29Kick-off on October 14, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)BMO Field, Toronto, Ontario

Toronto FCOrlando City SC

The Footlab AI model makes Orlando City SC the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Toronto FC. The most likely score is 1-1. If Orlando City SC wins, the most likely score is 1-2.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC?

Orlando City SC starts as the favourite with a 183-point Elo edge (1,886 vs 1,703).

36%24%40%
Toronto FC winDrawOrlando City SC win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Toronto FC

4-2-3-1
  1. 9J. Sargent
  1. 20D. Sallói
  2. 6N. Dorsch
  3. 7T. Corbeanu
  4. 71M. Cimermancic
  5. 11D. Etienne
  1. 3Matheus Pereira
  2. 22R. Laryea
  3. 13B. Kuscevic
  4. 25W. Zimmerman
  1. 1L. Gavran

Orlando City SC

4-4-2
  1. 7A. Griezmann
  2. 22Justin Ellis
  1. 77I. Angulo
  2. 35Joran Gerbet
  3. 10M. Ojeda
  4. 20E. Atuesta
  1. 6R. Jansson
  2. 44Bernardo Rhein Goncalves
  3. 4D. Brekalo
  4. 19Z. Taifi
  1. 71M. Crépeau

Computed on October 8, 2026 at 03:57 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toronto FC have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Orlando City SC have 6, 3 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Toronto FC
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 27, 2026Nashville SC(away)0-2Major League Soccer
Sep 20, 2026St. Louis City(away)1-3Major League Soccer
Sep 12, 2026Orlando City SC(away)0-3Major League Soccer
Sep 9, 2026Nashville SC(home)2-1Major League Soccer
Sep 5, 2026Chicago Fire(home)4-4Major League Soccer
Orlando City SC
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 26, 2026Philadelphia Union(away)2-4Major League Soccer
Sep 19, 2026New England Revolution(away)2-4Major League Soccer
Sep 16, 2026Columbus Crew(away)1-2US Open Cup
Sep 12, 2026Toronto FC(home)3-0Major League Soccer
Sep 9, 2026Atlanta United FC(away)3-2Major League Soccer

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Toronto FC wins, 0 draws, 4 Orlando City SC wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 12, 2026Orlando City SC 3-0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
Oct 18, 2025Toronto FC 4-2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
Mar 2, 2025Orlando City SC 4-2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
Jul 3, 2024Toronto FC 1-2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
Apr 27, 2024Orlando City SC 1-2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
Oct 21, 2023Toronto FC 0-2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer

Last archived meeting: Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC on Sep 12, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Toronto FC score 1.3 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Orlando City SC score 1.8 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Toronto FC1.31.8211/1510/15
Orlando City SC1.81.8312/1512/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Toronto FC sit 13th in Major League Soccer (29 points from 27 matches) and Orlando City SC sit 7th (34 points from 27 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
7Orlando City SC2710413486434
13Toronto FC2761110395129

A question about Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC?
The Footlab AI model makes Orlando City SC the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Toronto FC.
Where and when is Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC played?
Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC is played on October 14, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at BMO Field, in the Major League Soccer.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Toronto FC and Orlando City SC

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