Tre Penne vs Juvenes / Dogana: prediction and stats
Coppa TitanoRound of 16Kick-off on September 8, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo, Città di San Marino
The Footlab model makes Tre Penne the favourite at 66%, against 24% for a draw and 10% for Juvenes / Dogana. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tre Penne vs Juvenes / Dogana?
Tre Penne starts as the favourite with a 257-point Elo edge (1,380 vs 1,123).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tre Penne have 8 wins, 6 draws and 1 defeats; Juvenes / Dogana have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Domagnano(home) | 3-1 | Campionato |
| May 12, 2026 | La Fiorita(home) | 0-1 | Campionato |
| May 9, 2026 | La Fiorita(away) | 1-1 | Campionato |
| May 6, 2026 | Cosmos(away) | 0-0 | Campionato |
| May 3, 2026 | Cosmos(home) | 0-0 | Campionato |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Virtus(home) | 0-2 | Campionato |
| May 3, 2026 | Virtus(away) | 0-0 | Campionato |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Libertas(home) | 1-1 | Campionato |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Murata(home) | 5-2 | Campionato |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Pennarossa(away) | 0-0 | Campionato |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Tre Penne win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Juvenes / Dogana win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Tre Penne 3-1 Juvenes / Dogana | Campionato |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Juvenes / Dogana 1-0 Tre Penne | Coppa Titano |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Tre Penne 1-1 Juvenes / Dogana | Coppa Titano |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Juvenes / Dogana 1-1 Tre Penne | Campionato |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Tre Penne 4-2 Juvenes / Dogana | Campionato |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Juvenes / Dogana 1-2 Tre Penne | Campionato |
Last archived meeting: Tre Penne vs Juvenes / Dogana on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tre Penne score 2.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Juvenes / Dogana score 0.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Penne | 2.1 | 0.7 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Juvenes / Dogana | 0.9 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tre Penne vs Juvenes / Dogana?
- The Footlab model makes Tre Penne the favourite at 66%, against 24% for a draw and 10% for Juvenes / Dogana.
- Where and when is Tre Penne vs Juvenes / Dogana played?
- Tre Penne vs Juvenes / Dogana is played on September 8, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo, in the Coppa Titano.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.