Libertas vs Folgore: prediction and stats
Coppa TitanoRound of 16Kick-off on September 9, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Campo Sportivo di Borgo Maggiore, Borgo Maggiore
The Footlab model makes Folgore the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Libertas. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Libertas vs Folgore?
Folgore starts as the favourite with a 222-point Elo edge (1,259 vs 1,037).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Libertas have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Folgore have 8, 6 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | Juvenes / Dogana(away) | 1-1 | Campionato |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Virtus(home) | 0-9 | Campionato |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Tre Penne(home) | 1-3 | Campionato |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Tre Fiori(away) | 0-3 | Campionato |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Juvenes / Dogana(home) | 1-0 | Campionato |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2026 | Domagnano(home) | 1-3 | Campionato |
| May 2, 2026 | Domagnano(away) | 1-0 | Campionato |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Domagnano(away) | 7-3 | Campionato |
| Apr 19, 2026 | San Marino Academy(home) | 3-0 | Campionato |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Juvenes / Dogana(away) | 2-2 | Campionato |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Libertas win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Folgore win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Libertas 2-4 Folgore | Campionato |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Folgore 6-1 Libertas | Campionato |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Folgore 3-0 Libertas | Campionato |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Libertas 0-1 Folgore | Campionato |
| Feb 20, 2024 | Folgore 1-1 Libertas | Campionato |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Libertas 2-2 Folgore | Campionato |
How many goals should we expect?
Libertas score 1.3 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Folgore score 2.4 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertas | 1.3 | 2.0 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Folgore | 2.4 | 1.4 | 4 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Libertas vs Folgore?
- The Footlab model makes Folgore the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Libertas.
- Where and when is Libertas vs Folgore played?
- Libertas vs Folgore is played on September 9, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Campo Sportivo di Borgo Maggiore, in the Coppa Titano.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.