Murata vs Virtus: prediction and stats
Coppa TitanoRound of 16Kick-off on September 9, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo, Città di San Marino
The Footlab model makes Virtus the favourite at 89%, against 9% for a draw and 3% for Murata. The most likely score is 0-3.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Murata vs Virtus?
Virtus is a heavy favourite: 1,489 Elo points against 912 — a 578-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Murata have 0 wins, 0 draws and 15 defeats; Virtus have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Juvenes / Dogana(away) | 2-5 | Campionato |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Fiorentino(home) | 1-4 | Campionato |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Virtus(away) | 1-4 | Campionato |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Tre Fiori(home) | 0-3 | Campionato |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Pennarossa(away) | 0-2 | Campionato |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | Dila(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Dila(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| May 16, 2026 | La Fiorita(home) | 2-1 | Campionato |
| May 12, 2026 | Domagnano(away) | 1-2 | Campionato |
| May 9, 2026 | Domagnano(home) | 2-1 | Campionato |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Murata win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Virtus win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Virtus 4-1 Murata | Campionato |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Murata 0-2 Virtus | Campionato |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Murata 0-1 Virtus | Campionato |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Virtus 2-1 Murata | Campionato |
| Mar 13, 2024 | Murata 0-1 Virtus | Campionato |
| Dec 2, 2023 | Virtus 2-0 Murata | Campionato |
How many goals should we expect?
Murata score 0.7 and concede 3.4 goals per match over their last 15; Virtus score 2.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murata | 0.7 | 3.4 | 0 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
| Virtus | 2.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Murata vs Virtus?
- The Footlab model makes Virtus the favourite at 89%, against 9% for a draw and 3% for Murata.
- Where and when is Murata vs Virtus played?
- Murata vs Virtus is played on September 9, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo, in the Coppa Titano.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.