Match

Trefelin vs Llantwit Major: prediction and stats

Welsh CupRound of 64Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Ynys Park, Cwmafan

TrefelinLlantwit Major

The Footlab AI model makes Trefelin the favourite at 86%, against 9% for a draw and 5% for Llantwit Major. The most likely score is 3-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Trefelin vs Llantwit Major?

Trefelin starts as the favourite with a 236-point Elo edge (1,797 vs 1,561).

86%9%5%
Trefelin winDrawLlantwit Major win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Trefelin vs Llantwit Major

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Trefelin

4-3-3
  1. 10T. Brock
  2. 11Lewys Ware
  3. 7K. Georgievsky
  1. 14J. Jones
  2. 5S. MacDonald
  3. 20Bayan Aman
  1. 26K. Owen
  2. 2M. Thomas
  3. 8J. Davies
  4. 35Osian Davies
  1. 1S. Coughlan

Llantwit Major

Not enough data to predict the Llantwit Major lineup.

Computed on October 13, 2026 at 03:32 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Trefelin have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Llantwit Major have 3, 3 and 9.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Trefelin
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 9, 2026Cardiff MET(away)3-1Premier League
Oct 3, 2026Airbus UK(away)0-3Premier League
Sep 26, 2026The New Saints(home)1-3Premier League
Sep 18, 2026Briton Ferry(away)1-1Premier League
Sep 15, 2026Cambrian & Clydach(home)0-4Premier League
Llantwit Major
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026Pontardawe Town(home)1-1FAW Championship
Oct 6, 2026Pontypridd Town(away)1-4FAW Championship
Oct 2, 2026Carmarthen Town(away)2-1FAW Championship
Sep 26, 2026llanelli AFC(home)2-0FAW Championship
Sep 12, 2026Treowen Stars(away)1-1FAW Championship

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Trefelin wins, 3 draws, 1 Llantwit Major win.

DateScoreCompetition
Feb 28, 2026Llantwit Major 0-1 TrefelinFAW Championship
Aug 25, 2025Trefelin 3-3 Llantwit MajorFAW Championship
Jan 25, 2025Llantwit Major 0-0 TrefelinFAW Championship
Aug 16, 2024Trefelin 3-1 Llantwit MajorFAW Championship
Mar 2, 2024Llantwit Major 3-1 TrefelinFAW Championship
Sep 9, 2023Trefelin 3-3 Llantwit MajorFAW Championship

Last archived meeting: Llantwit Major vs Trefelin on Feb 28, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Trefelin score 1.3 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Llantwit Major score 1.2 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 87% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Trefelin1.32.126/159/15
Llantwit Major1.22.5111/1511/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

A question about Trefelin vs Llantwit Major?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Trefelin vs Llantwit Major?
The Footlab AI model makes Trefelin the favourite at 86%, against 9% for a draw and 5% for Llantwit Major.
Where and when is Trefelin vs Llantwit Major played?
Trefelin vs Llantwit Major is played on October 17, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Ynys Park, in the Welsh Cup.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 87% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Trefelin and Llantwit Major

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