Truro City vs Chelmsford City: prediction and stats
National League - SouthNational League South - 22Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Truro Sports Hub, Truro, Cornwall
The Footlab model makes Chelmsford City the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Truro City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Truro City vs Chelmsford City?
A very open match: only 92 Elo points separate Truro City (1,782) and Chelmsford City (1,874).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Truro City have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Chelmsford City have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tonbridge Angels(away) | 2-0 | National League - South |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Southampton U21(home) | 2-1 | National League Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chelmsford City(away) | 0-0 | National League - South |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Maidenhead(home) | 2-0 | National League - South |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Plymouth(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Folkestone Invicta(away) | 1-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Truro City(home) | 0-0 | National League - South |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hemel Hempstead Town(away) | 1-1 | National League - South |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Eastbourne Borough(home) | 1-3 | National League - South |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Chesham United(away) | 2-0 | National League - South |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Truro City win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Chelmsford City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chelmsford City 0-0 Truro City | National League - South |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Chelmsford City 0-0 Truro City | National League - South |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Truro City 2-1 Chelmsford City | National League - South |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Truro City 1-4 Chelmsford City | National League - South |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Chelmsford City 1-2 Truro City | National League - South |
Last archived meeting: Chelmsford City vs Truro City on Aug 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Truro City score 1.0 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Chelmsford City score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truro City | 1.0 | 0.6 | 7 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| Chelmsford City | 1.5 | 1.4 | 5 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Truro City sit 4th in National League - South (7 points from 3 matches) and Chelmsford City sit 17th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Truro City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 17 | Chelmsford City | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Truro City vs Chelmsford City?
- The Footlab model makes Chelmsford City the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Truro City.
- Where and when is Truro City vs Chelmsford City played?
- Truro City vs Chelmsford City is played on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Truro Sports Hub, in the National League - South.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Dec 19, 2026TorquayvsTonbridge Angels
- Dec 19, 2026Billericay TownvsAFC Totton
- Dec 19, 2026Hampton & RichmondvsWeston-super-Mare
- Dec 19, 2026Slough TownvsDover
- Dec 19, 2026Chesham UnitedvsBraintree
- Dec 19, 2026Folkestone InvictavsEbbsfleet United
- Dec 19, 2026SalisburyvsHorsham