UAI Urquiza vs Excursionistas: prediction and stats
Primera B MetropolitanaRegular Season - 36Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Monumental de Villa Lynch, General San Martín, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Excursionistas the favourite at 55%, against 30% for a draw and 15% for UAI Urquiza. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win UAI Urquiza vs Excursionistas?
Excursionistas starts as the favourite with a 165-point Elo edge (1,753 vs 1,588).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UAI Urquiza have 1 wins, 9 draws and 5 defeats; Excursionistas have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Brown DE Adrogue(away) | 1-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Deportivo Armenio(home) | 0-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Flandria(away) | 1-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Argentino Quilmes(home) | 0-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Defensores Unidos(away) | 1-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Talleres Remedios(away) | 2-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Deportivo Laferrere(home) | 5-3 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Brown DE Adrogue(away) | 0-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Deportivo Armenio(home) | 2-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Flandria(away) | 1-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 UAI Urquiza win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Excursionistas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | Excursionistas 0-0 UAI Urquiza | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Excursionistas 1-0 UAI Urquiza | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Mar 22, 2025 | UAI Urquiza 1-2 Excursionistas | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 10, 2024 | UAI Urquiza 2-0 Excursionistas | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Mar 23, 2024 | Excursionistas 1-1 UAI Urquiza | Primera B Metropolitana |
| May 20, 2017 | Excursionistas 1-2 UAI Urquiza | Primera B Metropolitana |
Last archived meeting: Excursionistas vs UAI Urquiza on May 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
UAI Urquiza score 0.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Excursionistas score 1.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 28% probability of over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAI Urquiza | 0.4 | 1.1 | 6 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Excursionistas | 1.8 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
UAI Urquiza sit 19th in Primera B Metropolitana (20 points from 20 matches) and Excursionistas sit 1st (41 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 11 | 41 |
| 1 | Excursionistas | 31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 47 | 24 | 59 |
| 19 | UAI Urquiza | 20 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 20 |
| 21 | UAI Urquiza | 31 | 3 | 19 | 9 | 15 | 26 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for UAI Urquiza vs Excursionistas?
- The Footlab model makes Excursionistas the favourite at 55%, against 30% for a draw and 15% for UAI Urquiza.
- Where and when is UAI Urquiza vs Excursionistas played?
- UAI Urquiza vs Excursionistas is played on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Monumental de Villa Lynch, in the Primera B Metropolitana.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 28% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 19, 2026Villa DalminevsItuzaingó
- Sep 19, 2026Real PilarvsArsenal Sarandi
- Sep 19, 2026Dock SudvsArgentino Quilmes
- Sep 19, 2026Deportivo CamionerosvsDeportivo Armenio
- Sep 19, 2026ComunicacionesvsDefensores Unidos
- Sep 19, 2026Villa San CarlosvsTalleres Remedios
- Sep 19, 2026Deportivo MerlovsFlandria
- Sep 19, 2026San Martín BurzacovsDeportivo Laferrere