UD Logroñés vs UD Ourense: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 33Kick-off on April 18, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas, Logroño
The Footlab model makes UD Logroñés the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for UD Ourense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win UD Logroñés vs UD Ourense?
A very open match: only 66 Elo points separate UD Logroñés (2,042) and UD Ourense (1,976).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UD Logroñés have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; UD Ourense have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Huesca II(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Mirandes(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Zaragoza(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Huesca(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 30, 2026 | SS Reyes(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Conquense(away) | 2-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 24, 2026 | Conquense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 16, 2026 | Reddis(home) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 9, 2026 | Reddis(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 3, 2026 | Atlético Astorga(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
UD Logroñés score 2.0 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; UD Ourense score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UD Logroñés | 2.0 | 0.6 | 9 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| UD Ourense | 1.5 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for UD Logroñés vs UD Ourense?
- The Footlab model makes UD Logroñés the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for UD Ourense.
- Where and when is UD Logroñés vs UD Ourense played?
- UD Logroñés vs UD Ourense is played on April 18, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.