Match

UD Ourense vs Racing Ferrol: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 13Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio O Couto, Ourense

UD OurenseRacing Ferrol

The Footlab AI model makes Racing Ferrol the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for UD Ourense. The most likely score is 1-1. If Racing Ferrol wins, the most likely score is 0-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,920 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win UD Ourense vs Racing Ferrol?

A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate UD Ourense (1,905) and Racing Ferrol (1,884).

33%29%38%
UD Ourense winDrawRacing Ferrol win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for UD Ourense vs Racing Ferrol

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

UD Ourense

4-3-3
  1. 10David Ferreiro
  2. 11Sergi Baldrich
  3. 17Xabi Dominguez
  1. 14R. Martinez
  2. 22D. Tejon
  3. 16Álvaro Bastida
  1. 4J. Labrada
  2. 3Julio Cabrera
  3. 5L. Fernandez
  4. 2Varo
  1. 1Manuel Vizoso

Racing Ferrol

4-3-3
  1. 10Dani Ojeda
  2. 18E. Eto'o Pineda
  3. 19Roberto Arroyo
  1. 6Fabio González
  2. 14Jesús Bernal
  3. 16Raúl Blanco
  1. 4Germán Novoa
  2. 5Eric Monjonell
  3. 2Migue Leal
  4. 17Álvaro Ramón
  1. 1Lucas Díaz

Computed on October 21, 2026 at 05:18 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UD Ourense have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Racing Ferrol have 5, 7 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

UD Ourense
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 18, 2026Real Avilés(away)0-3Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 10, 2026Barakaldo(home)1-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 3, 2026Real Unión(away)1-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 27, 2026Cacereño(home)0-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 19, 2026Unionistas de Salamanca(away)1-3Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Racing Ferrol
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 17, 2026Unionistas de Salamanca(home)1-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 10, 2026Deportivo La Coruña II(away)1-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 3, 2026Pontevedra(home)2-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 26, 2026Lugo(away)0-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 19, 2026Barakaldo(home)1-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1

How many goals should we expect?

UD Ourense score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Racing Ferrol score 1.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
UD Ourense1.01.156/156/15
Racing Ferrol1.10.967/154/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

UD Ourense sit 19th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (5 points from 8 matches) and Racing Ferrol sit 3rd (16 points from 8 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
3Racing Ferrol85129516
19UD Ourense81253135

A question about UD Ourense vs Racing Ferrol?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for UD Ourense vs Racing Ferrol?
The Footlab AI model makes Racing Ferrol the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for UD Ourense.
Where and when is UD Ourense vs Racing Ferrol played?
UD Ourense vs Racing Ferrol is played on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio O Couto, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: UD Ourense and Racing Ferrol

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