Unión Adarve vs Móstoles: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Group 7 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Centro Deportivo Municipal Vicente del Bosque, Madrid
The Footlab AI model makes Unión Adarve the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Móstoles. The most likely score is 1-1. If Unión Adarve wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Unión Adarve vs Móstoles?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Unión Adarve (1,719) and Móstoles (1,724).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Unión Adarve vs Móstoles
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Unión Adarve
Not enough data to predict the Unión Adarve lineup.
Móstoles
Not enough data to predict the Móstoles lineup.
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:43 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Unión Adarve have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Móstoles have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Torrejón(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Fuenlabrada(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Alcobendas Sport(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Colonia Moscardó(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | SS Reyes II(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Leganés II(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Torrejón(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Cala Pozuelo(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Fuenlabrada(away) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano II(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Unión Adarve wins, 1 draw, 2 Móstoles wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Unión Adarve 0-2 Móstoles | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Móstoles 0-3 Unión Adarve | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Móstoles 1-0 Unión Adarve | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Unión Adarve 2-1 Móstoles | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 10, 2022 | Móstoles 0-0 Unión Adarve | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Nov 21, 2021 | Unión Adarve 1-0 Móstoles | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Unión Adarve vs Móstoles on Jan 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Unión Adarve score 1.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Móstoles score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unión Adarve | 1.9 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Móstoles | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Unión Adarve sit 11th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 (6 points from 5 matches) and Móstoles sit 3rd (11 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Móstoles | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 11 |
| 11 | Unión Adarve | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
A question about Unión Adarve vs Móstoles?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Unión Adarve vs Móstoles?
- The Footlab AI model makes Unión Adarve the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Móstoles.
- Where and when is Unión Adarve vs Móstoles played?
- Unión Adarve vs Móstoles is played on October 11, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Centro Deportivo Municipal Vicente del Bosque, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 7.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Oct 11, 2026Las RozasvsSS Reyes II
- Oct 11, 2026Leganés IIvsGalapagar
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