Where and when is Unión Adarve vs Móstoles played?

Unión Adarve vs Móstoles is played on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Centro Deportivo Municipal Vicente del Bosque, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 7.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Unión Adarve vs Móstoles: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Group 7 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Centro Deportivo Municipal Vicente del Bosque, Madrid

Unión Adarve

Móstoles

The Footlab model makes Unión Adarve the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Móstoles. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Unión Adarve vs Móstoles?

A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Unión Adarve (1,795) and Móstoles (1,754).

Unión Adarve win51 %

Draw25 %

Móstoles win24 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Unión Adarve have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Móstoles have 2, 6 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Unión Adarve
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Racing Madrid(home)	5-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
May 3, 2026	Las Rozas(away)	2-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Apr 26, 2026	Galapagar(home)	3-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Apr 19, 2026	Villaverde-Boetticher(home)	3-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Apr 11, 2026	A Madrid III(away)	0-3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

Móstoles
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	A Madrid III(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
May 3, 2026	Villanueva Pardillo(home)	3-5	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Apr 25, 2026	Pozuelo Alarcón(away)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Apr 19, 2026	Leganés II(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Apr 12, 2026	Trival Valderas(away)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Unión Adarve win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Móstoles win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jan 25, 2026	Unión Adarve 0-2 Móstoles	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Sep 14, 2025	Móstoles 0-3 Unión Adarve	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Jan 26, 2025	Móstoles 1-0 Unión Adarve	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Sep 15, 2024	Unión Adarve 2-1 Móstoles	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Apr 10, 2022	Móstoles 0-0 Unión Adarve	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Nov 21, 2021	Unión Adarve 1-0 Móstoles	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Last archived meeting: Unión Adarve vs Móstoles on Jan 25, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Unión Adarve score 1.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Móstoles score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Unión Adarve	1.8	1.1	6	6/15	9/15
Móstoles	1.1	1.5	0	10/15	4/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Unión Adarve sit 6th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 (53 points from 34 matches) and Móstoles sit 7th (51 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
6	Unión Adarve	34	15	8	11	48	42	53
7	Móstoles	34	14	9	11	51	45	51

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Unión Adarve vs Móstoles?: The Footlab model makes Unión Adarve the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Móstoles.
Where and when is Unión Adarve vs Móstoles played?: Unión Adarve vs Móstoles is played on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Centro Deportivo Municipal Vicente del Bosque, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 7.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.