Ural vs Spartak Kostroma: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 24Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Ekaterinburg Arena, Ekaterinburg
The Footlab model makes Ural the favourite at 56%, against 26% for a draw and 18% for Spartak Kostroma. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ural vs Spartak Kostroma?
A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate Ural (1,898) and Spartak Kostroma (1,840).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ural have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Spartak Kostroma have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tekstilshchik(home) | 2-0 | First League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Rotor Volgograd(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC UFA(home) | 3-0 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ska-khabarovsk(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Leningradets(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Torpedo Moskva(away) | 0-3 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | FC UFA(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ska-khabarovsk(away) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Enisey(home) | 2-2 | First League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Tekstilshchik(away) | 0-0 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Ural win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Spartak Kostroma win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | Ural 1-1 Spartak Kostroma | First League |
| Sep 4, 2025 | Spartak Kostroma 1-1 Ural | First League |
Last archived meeting: Ural vs Spartak Kostroma on Nov 22, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Ural score 1.5 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Spartak Kostroma score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ural | 1.5 | 0.6 | 8 | 3/15 | 6/15 |
| Spartak Kostroma | 1.2 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ural sit 3rd in First League (14 points from 7 matches) and Spartak Kostroma sit 8th (12 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ural | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Spartak Kostroma | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 12 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ural vs Spartak Kostroma?
- The Footlab model makes Ural the favourite at 56%, against 26% for a draw and 18% for Spartak Kostroma.
- Where and when is Ural vs Spartak Kostroma played?
- Ural vs Spartak Kostroma is played on March 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Ekaterinburg Arena, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.