UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 15Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Héroes de San Ramón, Cajamarca
The Footlab model makes UTC Cajamarca the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Deportivo Garcilaso. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Deportivo Garcilaso starts as the favourite with a 174-point Elo edge (1,711 vs 1,537).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UTC Cajamarca have 1 wins, 7 draws and 7 defeats; Deportivo Garcilaso have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Alianza Atletico(away) | 1-1 | Copa De La Liga |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos(home) | 1-3 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Alianza Lima(away) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | ADT(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cusco(away) | 1-4 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cusco(home) | 4-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cienciano(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | UCV Moquegua(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | ADT(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 27, 2026 | FC Cajamarca(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 UTC Cajamarca win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Deportivo Garcilaso win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Deportivo Garcilaso 2-0 UTC Cajamarca | Primera División |
| Sep 26, 2025 | Deportivo Garcilaso 0-0 UTC Cajamarca | Primera División |
| May 3, 2025 | UTC Cajamarca 2-1 Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División |
| Jul 13, 2024 | Deportivo Garcilaso 1-0 UTC Cajamarca | Primera División |
| Jan 26, 2024 | UTC Cajamarca 1-0 Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División |
| Sep 3, 2023 | UTC Cajamarca 0-0 Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Deportivo Garcilaso vs UTC Cajamarca on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
UTC Cajamarca score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Deportivo Garcilaso score 1.6 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTC Cajamarca | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 1.6 | 0.5 | 8 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
UTC Cajamarca sit 13th in Primera División (18 points from 17 matches) and Deportivo Garcilaso sit 7th (26 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 21 | 39 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 26 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 26 |
| 13 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 18 |
| 13 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 18 |
| 17 | UTC Cajamarca | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
| 17 | UTC Cajamarca | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 2 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 25 | 38 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
- The Footlab model makes UTC Cajamarca the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Deportivo Garcilaso.
- Where and when is UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso played?
- UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso is played on October 31, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Héroes de San Ramón, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 31, 2026Sporting CristalvsFC Cajamarca
- Oct 31, 2026Alianza LimavsCienciano
- Oct 31, 2026Sport HuancayovsFBC Melgar
- Oct 31, 2026Comerciantes UnidosvsADT
- Oct 31, 2026Alianza AtleticovsJuan Pablo II College
- Oct 31, 2026Atletico GrauvsUniversitario
- Oct 31, 2026CuscovsSport Boys
- Oct 31, 2026UCV MoqueguavsClub Deportivo Los Chankas