Alianza Lima vs Cienciano: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 15Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, Lima
The Footlab model makes Alianza Lima the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Cienciano. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alianza Lima vs Cienciano?
A very open match: only 75 Elo points separate Alianza Lima (1,818) and Cienciano (1,743).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alianza Lima have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Cienciano have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FBC Melgar(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sport Boys(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Alianza Atletico(home) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos(away) | 2-2 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sport Boys(away) | 1-5 | Primera División |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Botafogo(away) | 0-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Deportivo Garcilaso(home) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Botafogo(home) | 6-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Alianza Atletico(away) | 0-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Alianza Lima win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Cienciano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Cienciano 0-1 Alianza Lima | Primera División |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Cienciano 2-1 Alianza Lima | Primera División |
| May 3, 2025 | Alianza Lima 0-1 Cienciano | Primera División |
| Aug 21, 2024 | Alianza Lima 3-0 Cienciano | Primera División |
| Mar 14, 2024 | Cienciano 2-1 Alianza Lima | Primera División |
| Aug 20, 2023 | Cienciano 0-0 Alianza Lima | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Cienciano vs Alianza Lima on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alianza Lima score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Cienciano score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Lima | 1.4 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Cienciano | 1.6 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alianza Lima sit 1st in Primera División (40 points from 17 matches) and Cienciano sit 3rd (33 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 8 | 40 |
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 8 | 40 |
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 22 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 39 | 13 | 51 |
| 2 | Alianza Lima | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 8 |
| 3 | Alianza Lima | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Cienciano | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 33 |
| 3 | Cienciano | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 33 |
| 6 | Cienciano | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 38 | 33 | 37 |
| 16 | Cienciano | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 16 | Cienciano | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alianza Lima vs Cienciano?
- The Footlab model makes Alianza Lima the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Cienciano.
- Where and when is Alianza Lima vs Cienciano played?
- Alianza Lima vs Cienciano is played on October 31, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 31, 2026UTC CajamarcavsDeportivo Garcilaso
- Oct 31, 2026Sporting CristalvsFC Cajamarca
- Oct 31, 2026Sport HuancayovsFBC Melgar
- Oct 31, 2026Comerciantes UnidosvsADT
- Oct 31, 2026Alianza AtleticovsJuan Pablo II College
- Oct 31, 2026Atletico GrauvsUniversitario
- Oct 31, 2026CuscovsSport Boys
- Oct 31, 2026UCV MoqueguavsClub Deportivo Los Chankas