UTC Cajamarca vs Universitario: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 7Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 08:30 PM (UTC)Estadio Héroes de San Ramón, Cajamarca
The Footlab model makes Universitario the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for UTC Cajamarca. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win UTC Cajamarca vs Universitario?
Universitario starts as the favourite with a 267-point Elo edge (1,786 vs 1,519).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UTC Cajamarca have 1 wins, 6 draws and 8 defeats; Universitario have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos(home) | 1-3 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Alianza Lima(away) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | ADT(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cusco(away) | 1-4 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | UCV Moquegua(home) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas(home) | 3-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Cajamarca(away) | 3-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sporting Cristal(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Cienciano(away) | 0-2 | Primera División |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Cusco(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 UTC Cajamarca win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Universitario win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Universitario 2-0 UTC Cajamarca | Primera División |
| Sep 21, 2025 | UTC Cajamarca 1-2 Universitario | Primera División |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Universitario 6-0 UTC Cajamarca | Primera División |
| Aug 5, 2024 | Universitario 1-0 UTC Cajamarca | Primera División |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UTC Cajamarca 0-0 Universitario | Primera División |
| Oct 3, 2023 | Universitario 3-0 UTC Cajamarca | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Universitario vs UTC Cajamarca on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
UTC Cajamarca score 1.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Universitario score 1.0 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTC Cajamarca | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Universitario | 1.0 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
UTC Cajamarca sit 13th in Primera División (18 points from 17 matches) and Universitario sit 4th (29 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Universitario | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 32 | 22 | 39 |
| 4 | Universitario | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 15 | 29 |
| 4 | Universitario | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 15 | 29 |
| 7 | Universitario | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| 8 | Universitario | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| 13 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 18 |
| 13 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 18 |
| 17 | UTC Cajamarca | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
| 17 | UTC Cajamarca | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 2 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 25 | 38 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for UTC Cajamarca vs Universitario?
- The Footlab model makes Universitario the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for UTC Cajamarca.
- Where and when is UTC Cajamarca vs Universitario played?
- UTC Cajamarca vs Universitario is played on August 29, 2026 at 08:30 PM (UTC) at Estadio Héroes de San Ramón, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Aug 28, 2026Comerciantes UnidosvsFC Cajamarca
- Aug 29, 2026Club Deportivo Los ChankasvsJuan Pablo II College
- Aug 29, 2026CiencianovsCusco
- Aug 29, 2026Atletico GrauvsFBC Melgar
- Aug 30, 2026Alianza LimavsDeportivo Garcilaso
- Aug 30, 2026UCV MoqueguavsAlianza Atletico
- Aug 30, 2026ADTvsSport Huancayo
- Aug 30, 2026Sport BoysvsSporting Cristal