Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 7Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, Lima
The Footlab model makes Alianza Lima the favourite at 70%, against 19% for a draw and 11% for Deportivo Garcilaso. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Alianza Lima starts as the favourite with a 108-point Elo edge (1,818 vs 1,710).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alianza Lima have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Deportivo Garcilaso have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FBC Melgar(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sport Boys(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Alianza Atletico(home) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos(away) | 2-2 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cusco(home) | 4-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cienciano(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | UCV Moquegua(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | ADT(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 27, 2026 | FC Cajamarca(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Alianza Lima win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Deportivo Garcilaso win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Deportivo Garcilaso 1-1 Alianza Lima | Primera División |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Alianza Lima 3-4 Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División |
| Apr 15, 2025 | Deportivo Garcilaso 0-1 Alianza Lima | Primera División |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Deportivo Garcilaso 1-2 Alianza Lima | Primera División |
| May 20, 2024 | Alianza Lima 3-2 Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Deportivo Garcilaso 0-1 Alianza Lima | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Lima on Mar 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alianza Lima score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Deportivo Garcilaso score 1.6 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Lima | 1.4 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 1.6 | 0.5 | 8 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alianza Lima sit 1st in Primera División (40 points from 17 matches) and Deportivo Garcilaso sit 7th (26 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 8 | 40 |
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 8 | 40 |
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 22 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 39 | 13 | 51 |
| 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 13 |
| 2 | Alianza Lima | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 8 |
| 3 | Alianza Lima | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 21 | 39 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 26 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 26 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
- The Footlab model makes Alianza Lima the favourite at 70%, against 19% for a draw and 11% for Deportivo Garcilaso.
- Where and when is Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso played?
- Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso is played on August 30, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Aug 28, 2026Comerciantes UnidosvsFC Cajamarca
- Aug 29, 2026Club Deportivo Los ChankasvsJuan Pablo II College
- Aug 29, 2026UTC CajamarcavsUniversitario
- Aug 30, 2026UCV MoqueguavsAlianza Atletico
- Aug 30, 2026ADTvsSport Huancayo
- Aug 30, 2026Sport BoysvsSporting Cristal
- Aug 31, 2026CiencianovsCusco
- Aug 31, 2026Atletico GrauvsFBC Melgar