Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 7Kick-off on August 31, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Campeones del '36, Sullana
The Footlab model makes FBC Melgar the favourite at 36%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Atletico Grau. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar?
FBC Melgar starts as the favourite with a 129-point Elo edge (1,750 vs 1,621).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Grau have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; FBC Melgar have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | FC Cajamarca(away) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Juan Pablo II College(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sport Boys(home) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sport Huancayo(away) | 0-2 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Alianza Lima(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas(away) | 3-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Cajamarca(home) | 2-4 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | UCV Moquegua(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Sporting Cristal(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Atletico Grau win(s), 4 draw(s), 2 FBC Melgar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | FBC Melgar 0-0 Atletico Grau | Primera División |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Atletico Grau 0-0 FBC Melgar | Primera División |
| May 18, 2025 | FBC Melgar 1-1 Atletico Grau | Primera División |
| Sep 24, 2024 | FBC Melgar 0-0 Atletico Grau | Primera División |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Atletico Grau 1-2 FBC Melgar | Primera División |
| Jul 7, 2023 | FBC Melgar 3-0 Atletico Grau | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: FBC Melgar vs Atletico Grau on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Grau score 1.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; FBC Melgar score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Grau | 1.2 | 0.9 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| FBC Melgar | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico Grau sit 16th in Primera División (16 points from 17 matches) and FBC Melgar sit 5th (28 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 28 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 28 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 39 | 26 | 38 |
| 6 | FBC Melgar | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| 6 | Atletico Grau | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| 12 | Atletico Grau | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 23 | 26 |
| 14 | Atletico Grau | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 18 | 16 |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 18 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar?
- The Footlab model makes FBC Melgar the favourite at 36%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Atletico Grau.
- Where and when is Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar played?
- Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar is played on August 31, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Campeones del '36, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Aug 28, 2026Comerciantes UnidosvsFC Cajamarca
- Aug 29, 2026Club Deportivo Los ChankasvsJuan Pablo II College
- Aug 29, 2026UTC CajamarcavsUniversitario
- Aug 30, 2026Alianza LimavsDeportivo Garcilaso
- Aug 30, 2026UCV MoqueguavsAlianza Atletico
- Aug 30, 2026ADTvsSport Huancayo
- Aug 30, 2026Sport BoysvsSporting Cristal
- Aug 31, 2026CiencianovsCusco