Universitario vs Comerciantes Unidos: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 8Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Monumental, Lima
The Footlab model makes Universitario the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Comerciantes Unidos. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Universitario vs Comerciantes Unidos?
Universitario starts as the favourite with a 209-point Elo edge (1,808 vs 1,599).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Universitario have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Comerciantes Unidos have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas(home) | 3-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Cajamarca(away) | 3-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sporting Cristal(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Cienciano(away) | 0-2 | Primera División |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Cusco(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca(away) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atletico Grau(away) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cusco(home) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas(away) | 2-3 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Alianza Lima(home) | 2-2 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Universitario win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Comerciantes Unidos win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos 0-0 Universitario | Primera División |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Universitario 3-1 Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Comerciantes Unidos 1-1 Universitario | Primera División |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Comerciantes Unidos 0-2 Universitario | Primera División |
| Apr 29, 2024 | Universitario 6-0 Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División |
| Nov 25, 2018 | Universitario 2-0 Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Comerciantes Unidos vs Universitario on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Universitario score 1.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Comerciantes Unidos score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Universitario | 1.0 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Comerciantes Unidos | 1.0 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Universitario sit 4th in Primera División (29 points from 17 matches) and Comerciantes Unidos sit 9th (21 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Universitario | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Universitario | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 35 | 22 | 42 |
| 4 | Universitario | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 15 | 29 |
| 4 | Universitario | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 15 | 29 |
| 8 | Universitario | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 20 | 21 |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 20 | 21 |
| 10 | Comerciantes Unidos | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 8 |
| 11 | Comerciantes Unidos | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 5 |
| 11 | Comerciantes Unidos | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 30 | 30 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Universitario vs Comerciantes Unidos?
- The Footlab model makes Universitario the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Comerciantes Unidos.
- Where and when is Universitario vs Comerciantes Unidos played?
- Universitario vs Comerciantes Unidos is played on September 5, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Monumental, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 5, 2026Sporting CristalvsClub Deportivo Los Chankas
- Sep 5, 2026FBC MelgarvsADT
- Sep 5, 2026Sport HuancayovsSport Boys
- Sep 5, 2026Alianza AtleticovsUTC Cajamarca
- Sep 5, 2026CuscovsUCV Moquegua
- Sep 5, 2026Deportivo GarcilasovsAtletico Grau
- Sep 5, 2026Juan Pablo II CollegevsAlianza Lima
- Sep 5, 2026FC CajamarcavsCienciano