Machida Zelvia vs Tokyo Verdy: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 17Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Machida Gion Stadium, Tokyo
The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Tokyo Verdy. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Machida Zelvia vs Tokyo Verdy?
Machida Zelvia starts as the favourite with a 244-point Elo edge (2,114 vs 1,869).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Machida Zelvia have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; Tokyo Verdy have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Urawa(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(away) | 4-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Tokyo(away) | 5-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Fujieda MYFC(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fagiano Okayama(away) | 0-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Kashiwa Reysol(home) | 1-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kawasaki Frontale(home) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 2-4 | J1 League |
| May 30, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(away) | 1-1 | J1 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Machida Zelvia win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Tokyo Verdy win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | Machida Zelvia 0-0 Tokyo Verdy | J1 League |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Tokyo Verdy 2-2 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Jul 20, 2025 | Tokyo Verdy 0-1 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Feb 26, 2025 | Machida Zelvia 0-1 Tokyo Verdy | J1 League |
| Jul 14, 2024 | Tokyo Verdy 0-1 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| May 19, 2024 | Machida Zelvia 5-0 Tokyo Verdy | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Machida Zelvia vs Tokyo Verdy on May 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Machida Zelvia score 1.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Tokyo Verdy score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machida Zelvia | 1.9 | 0.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Tokyo Verdy | 0.9 | 1.5 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Machida Zelvia sit 1st in J1 League (9 points from 3 matches) and Tokyo Verdy sit 17th (2 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 9 |
| 17 | Tokyo Verdy | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Machida Zelvia vs Tokyo Verdy?
- The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Tokyo Verdy.
- Where and when is Machida Zelvia vs Tokyo Verdy played?
- Machida Zelvia vs Tokyo Verdy is played on November 28, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Machida Gion Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 28, 2026Kashiwa ReysolvsSanfrecce Hiroshima
- Nov 28, 2026Shimizu S-pulsevsUrawa
- Nov 28, 2026Nagoya GrampusvsAvispa Fukuoka
- Nov 28, 2026Vissel KobevsJEF United Chiba
- Nov 28, 2026KashimavsFagiano Okayama
- Nov 28, 2026Kawasaki FrontalevsGamba Osaka
- Nov 28, 2026Yokohama F. MarinosvsFC Tokyo
- Nov 28, 2026Kyoto SangavsCerezo Osaka