Where and when is Mito Hollyhock vs V-varen Nagasaki played?

Mito Hollyhock vs V-varen Nagasaki is played on November 28, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at K’s Denki Stadium, in the J1 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Mito Hollyhock vs V-varen Nagasaki: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 17Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)K’s Denki Stadium, Mito

Mito Hollyhock

V-varen Nagasaki

The Footlab model makes Mito Hollyhock the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for V-varen Nagasaki. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Mito Hollyhock vs V-varen Nagasaki?

A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate Mito Hollyhock (1,832) and V-varen Nagasaki (1,910).

Mito Hollyhock win39 %

Draw27 %

V-varen Nagasaki win34 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mito Hollyhock have 2 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats; V-varen Nagasaki have 5, 2 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Mito Hollyhock
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Kyoto Sanga(away)	3-1	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	Gamba Osaka(home)	1-1	J1 League
Aug 8, 2026	Kashiwa Reysol(away)	1-2	J1 League
Jun 6, 2026	V-varen Nagasaki(home)	0-1	J1 League
May 30, 2026	V-varen Nagasaki(away)	0-1	J1 League

V-varen Nagasaki
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Kashiwa Reysol(away)	2-4	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	Fagiano Okayama(away)	0-1	J1 League
Aug 9, 2026	Kyoto Sanga(home)	2-1	J1 League
Jul 17, 2026	Utrecht(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jun 6, 2026	Mito Hollyhock(away)	1-0	J1 League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Mito Hollyhock win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 V-varen Nagasaki win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jun 6, 2026	Mito Hollyhock 0-1 V-varen Nagasaki	J1 League
May 30, 2026	V-varen Nagasaki 1-0 Mito Hollyhock	J1 League
Nov 23, 2025	V-varen Nagasaki 2-1 Mito Hollyhock	J2 League
May 31, 2025	Mito Hollyhock 3-0 V-varen Nagasaki	J2 League
Aug 3, 2024	V-varen Nagasaki 1-2 Mito Hollyhock	J2 League
Jun 2, 2024	Mito Hollyhock 2-3 V-varen Nagasaki	J2 League

Last archived meeting: Mito Hollyhock vs V-varen Nagasaki on Jun 6, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Mito Hollyhock score 1.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; V-varen Nagasaki score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Mito Hollyhock	1.1	1.8	1	10/15	7/15
V-varen Nagasaki	1.2	1.5	2	9/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Mito Hollyhock sit 7th in J1 League (4 points from 3 matches) and V-varen Nagasaki sit 16th (3 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
7	Mito Hollyhock	3	1	1	1	5	4	4
16	V-varen Nagasaki	3	1	0	2	4	6	3

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Mito Hollyhock vs V-varen Nagasaki?: The Footlab model makes Mito Hollyhock the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for V-varen Nagasaki.
Where and when is Mito Hollyhock vs V-varen Nagasaki played?: Mito Hollyhock vs V-varen Nagasaki is played on November 28, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at K’s Denki Stadium, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.