Valencia vs Atletico Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 35Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
The Footlab model makes Valencia the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Atletico Madrid. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Valencia vs Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid starts as the favourite with a 143-point Elo edge (2,241 vs 2,098).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Valencia have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Atletico Madrid have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Celta Vigo(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newcastle(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Derby(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Castellón(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 2-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Valencia win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Atletico Madrid win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Valencia 0-2 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Atletico Madrid 2-1 Valencia | La Liga |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Valencia 0-3 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Atletico Madrid 3-0 Valencia | La Liga |
| Jan 28, 2024 | Atletico Madrid 2-0 Valencia | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Valencia 3-0 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Valencia vs Atletico Madrid on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Valencia score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Madrid score 1.6 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 1.4 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Atletico Madrid | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Valencia sit 11th in La Liga (1 points from 1 matches) and Atletico Madrid sit 3rd (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Valencia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Valencia vs Atletico Madrid?
- The Footlab model makes Valencia the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Atletico Madrid.
- Where and when is Valencia vs Atletico Madrid played?
- Valencia vs Atletico Madrid is played on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Mestalla, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.