Valencia vs Atletico Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 35Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Valencia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Atletico Madrid wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,930 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Valencia vs Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid starts as the favourite with a 221-point Elo edge (2,274 vs 2,053).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Valencia vs Atletico Madrid
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Valencia
4-2-3-1- 9Hugo Duro
- 18Pepelu
- 8Javi Guerra
- 2G. Rodríguez
- 7A. Danjuma
- 19Dani Raba
- 14José Gayà
- 24Pablo Maffeo
- 12J. de Haas
- 5César Tárrega
- 1S. Dimitrievski
Atletico Madrid
4-4-2- 15J. David
- 11A. Lookman
- 20G. Simeone
- 8Pablo Barrios
- 7Lee Kang-In
- 23M. Hjulmand
- 17D. Hancko
- 21C. Romero
- 18Marc Pubill
- 14Marcos Llorente
- 13J. Oblak
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 02:51 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Valencia have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Atletico Madrid have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Alaves(away) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Espanyol(away) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Alaves(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Valencia win, 0 draws, 5 Atletico Madrid wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Valencia 0-2 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Atletico Madrid 2-1 Valencia | La Liga |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Valencia 0-3 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Atletico Madrid 3-0 Valencia | La Liga |
| Jan 28, 2024 | Atletico Madrid 2-0 Valencia | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Valencia 3-0 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Valencia vs Atletico Madrid on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Valencia score 1.0 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Madrid score 1.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 1.0 | 1.6 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Atletico Madrid | 1.8 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Valencia sit 19th in La Liga (6 points from 9 matches) and Atletico Madrid sit 2nd (22 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 22 |
| 19 | Valencia | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 6 |
A question about Valencia vs Atletico Madrid?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Valencia vs Atletico Madrid?
- The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Valencia.
- Where and when is Valencia vs Atletico Madrid played?
- Valencia vs Atletico Madrid is played on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Mestalla, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.