Atletico-MG vs Vasco DA Gama: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 37Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Arena MRV, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais
The Footlab AI model makes Vasco DA Gama the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Atletico-MG. The most likely score is 1-1. If Vasco DA Gama wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,586 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Vasco DA Gama?
A very open match: only 25 Elo points separate Atletico-MG (1,855) and Vasco DA Gama (1,829).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Atletico-MG vs Vasco DA Gama
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Atletico-MG
4-2-3-1- 19Reinier
- 11Bernard
- 28T. Cuello
- 8Maycon
- 5Alexsander
- 39Mamady Cisse
- 2Natanael
- 14Vitor Hugo
- 36K. Pascini
- 6Renan Lodi
- 1Gabriel Delfim
Vasco DA Gama
4-2-3-1- 19Bruno Duarte
- 22A. Lescano
- 5S. Sosa
- 9F. Colidio
- 11A. Gómez
- 23Thiago Mendes
- 30Robert Renan
- 66Cuiabano
- 4A. Saldivia
- 2J. Rodríguez
- 1Léo Jardim
Computed on October 26, 2026 at 05:51 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico-MG have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Vasco DA Gama have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Atletico Torque(away) | 0-2 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Coritiba(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Atletico Torque(home) | 3-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Santos(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(away) | 2-2 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Corinthians(home) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Boca Juniors(home) | 1-3 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Sao Paulo(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Boca Juniors(away) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Remo(home) | 0-0 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Atletico-MG wins, 2 draws, 1 Vasco DA Gama win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama 0-1 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Atletico-MG 5-0 Vasco DA Gama | Serie A |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Vasco DA Gama 1-1 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| Dec 4, 2024 | Vasco DA Gama 2-0 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Vasco DA Gama 1-1 Atletico-MG | Copa Do Brasil |
| Oct 2, 2024 | Atletico-MG 2-1 Vasco DA Gama | Copa Do Brasil |
Last archived meeting: Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico-MG on May 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico-MG score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Vasco DA Gama score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG | 1.5 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Vasco DA Gama | 1.5 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico-MG sit 6th in Serie A (50 points from 31 matches) and Vasco DA Gama sit 13th (38 points from 31 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 35 | 50 |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 39 | 45 | 38 |
A question about Atletico-MG vs Vasco DA Gama?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico-MG vs Vasco DA Gama?
- The Footlab AI model makes Vasco DA Gama the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Atletico-MG.
- Where and when is Atletico-MG vs Vasco DA Gama played?
- Atletico-MG vs Vasco DA Gama is played on November 29, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Arena MRV, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.