Atletico-MG vs Vasco DA Gama: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 37Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Arena MRV, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais
The Footlab model makes Atletico-MG the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Vasco DA Gama. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Vasco DA Gama?
A very open match: only 67 Elo points separate Atletico-MG (1,983) and Vasco DA Gama (1,915).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico-MG have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Vasco DA Gama have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Internacional(away) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 19, 2026 | RB Bragantino(home) | 2-2 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Gremio(home) | 3-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Remo(away) | 2-2 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Palmeiras(away) | 1-4 | Serie A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Olimpia(away) | 4-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Santos(home) | 0-3 | Serie A |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Olimpia(home) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Bahia(away) | 0-0 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Atletico-MG win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Vasco DA Gama win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama 0-1 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Atletico-MG 5-0 Vasco DA Gama | Serie A |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Vasco DA Gama 1-1 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| Dec 4, 2024 | Vasco DA Gama 2-0 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Vasco DA Gama 1-1 Atletico-MG | Copa Do Brasil |
| Oct 2, 2024 | Atletico-MG 2-1 Vasco DA Gama | Copa Do Brasil |
Last archived meeting: Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico-MG on May 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico-MG score 1.3 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Vasco DA Gama score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG | 1.3 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Vasco DA Gama | 1.1 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico-MG sit 9th in Serie A (33 points from 23 matches) and Vasco DA Gama sit 19th (22 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Atletico-MG | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 27 | 33 |
| 19 | Vasco DA Gama | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 38 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico-MG vs Vasco DA Gama?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico-MG the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Vasco DA Gama.
- Where and when is Atletico-MG vs Vasco DA Gama played?
- Atletico-MG vs Vasco DA Gama is played on November 29, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Arena MRV, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.