De Graafschap vs Waalwijk: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Stadion De Vijverberg, Doetinchem
The Footlab AI model makes Waalwijk the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for De Graafschap. The most likely score is 1-1. If Waalwijk wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win De Graafschap vs Waalwijk?
A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate De Graafschap (1,692) and Waalwijk (1,765).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for De Graafschap vs Waalwijk
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
De Graafschap
4-3-2-1- 9J. Kania
- 8D. Warmerdam
- 21K. Symons
- 10F. de Jong
- 7Bjorn van Zijl
- 27N. Ahmeti-Grainca
- 3R. Besselink
- 16N. Martens
- 14Gijs Bolk
- 2J. Wieckhoff
- 1T. Wieggers
Waalwijk
4-2-3-1- 27F. Stokkers
- 8J. Nap
- 10T. van Leeuwen
- 7R. Fage
- 6L. Postma
- 20Keyan Varela
- 30J. de Wijs
- 55N. Held
- 3S. van der Plas
- 4L. van Gelderen
- 16M. Spenkelink
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:35 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, De Graafschap have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Waalwijk have 5, 7 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(away) | 2-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Den Bosch(home) | 1-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 20, 2026 | NAC Breda(home) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Emmen(away) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Heracles(away) | 0-5 | Eerste Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Emmen(home) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Roda(away) | 0-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 18, 2026 | MVV(home) | 6-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Jong Ajax(away) | 2-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 4, 2026 | NAC Breda(home) | 4-2 | Eerste Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 De Graafschap wins, 1 draw, 2 Waalwijk wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | De Graafschap 2-4 Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Waalwijk 1-4 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 30, 2018 | De Graafschap 1-0 Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 2, 2017 | Waalwijk 0-0 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| Apr 7, 2017 | De Graafschap 4-0 Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 25, 2016 | Waalwijk 2-1 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
Last archived meeting: De Graafschap vs Waalwijk on Jan 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
De Graafschap score 1.6 and concede 3.0 goals per match over their last 15; Waalwijk score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De Graafschap | 1.6 | 3.0 | 1 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
| Waalwijk | 1.7 | 1.2 | 3 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
De Graafschap sit 19th in Eerste Divisie (8 points from 9 matches) and Waalwijk sit 7th (14 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Waalwijk | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 19 | 12 | 14 |
| 19 | De Graafschap | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 22 | 8 |
A question about De Graafschap vs Waalwijk?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for De Graafschap vs Waalwijk?
- The Footlab AI model makes Waalwijk the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for De Graafschap.
- Where and when is De Graafschap vs Waalwijk played?
- De Graafschap vs Waalwijk is played on October 23, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion De Vijverberg, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.