De Graafschap vs Waalwijk: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Stadion De Vijverberg, Doetinchem
The Footlab model makes Waalwijk the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for De Graafschap. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win De Graafschap vs Waalwijk?
A very open match: only 47 Elo points separate De Graafschap (1,716) and Waalwijk (1,763).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, De Graafschap have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Waalwijk have 3, 8 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | VVV Venlo(away) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Jong AZ(home) | 2-5 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Helmond Sport(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kifisia(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Helmond Sport(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Dordrecht(home) | 2-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Vitesse(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Kifisia(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Patro Eisden(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 De Graafschap win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Waalwijk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | De Graafschap 2-4 Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Waalwijk 1-4 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 30, 2018 | De Graafschap 1-0 Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 2, 2017 | Waalwijk 0-0 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| Apr 7, 2017 | De Graafschap 4-0 Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 25, 2016 | Waalwijk 2-1 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
Last archived meeting: De Graafschap vs Waalwijk on Jan 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
De Graafschap score 2.1 and concede 2.7 goals per match over their last 15; Waalwijk score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De Graafschap | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
| Waalwijk | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
De Graafschap sit 17th in Eerste Divisie (1 points from 3 matches) and Waalwijk sit 14th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Waalwijk | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Waalwijk | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 17 | De Graafschap | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| 17 | De Graafschap | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for De Graafschap vs Waalwijk?
- The Footlab model makes Waalwijk the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for De Graafschap.
- Where and when is De Graafschap vs Waalwijk played?
- De Graafschap vs Waalwijk is played on October 23, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion De Vijverberg, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.