Vitória de Sernache vs União Santarém: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 16Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Nuno Álvares Pereira, Cernache do Bonjardim
The Footlab model makes Vitória de Sernache the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for União Santarém. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vitória de Sernache vs União Santarém?
A very open match: only 1 Elo points separate Vitória de Sernache (1,854) and União Santarém (1,854).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vitória de Sernache have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; União Santarém have 1, 6 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Oliveirense(away) | 2-3 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | SC Covilha(home) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Mafra(away) | 0-5 | Liga 3 |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Leça(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| May 31, 2026 | Louletano(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | CF Os Belenenses(away) | 0-5 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Oliveirense(home) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | SC Covilha(away) | 0-2 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Academica(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Varzim(home) | 2-2 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Vitória de Sernache win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 União Santarém win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2024 | União Santarém 3-0 Vitória de Sernache | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Dec 17, 2023 | Vitória de Sernache 0-2 União Santarém | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Dec 1, 2019 | União Santarém 3-1 Vitória de Sernache | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: União Santarém vs Vitória de Sernache on Apr 7, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Vitória de Sernache score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; União Santarém score 0.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória de Sernache | 1.0 | 1.1 | 7 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| União Santarém | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vitória de Sernache sit 9th in Liga 3 (1 points from 3 matches) and União Santarém sit 10th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Vitória de Sernache | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| 10 | União Santarém | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vitória de Sernache vs União Santarém?
- The Footlab model makes Vitória de Sernache the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for União Santarém.
- Where and when is Vitória de Sernache vs União Santarém played?
- Vitória de Sernache vs União Santarém is played on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Nuno Álvares Pereira, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.