Fafe vs AD Marco 09: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 16Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Parque Municipal dos Desportos, Fafe
The Footlab AI model makes Fafe the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for AD Marco 09. The most likely score is 1-1. If Fafe wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,443 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fafe vs AD Marco 09?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Fafe (2,037) and AD Marco 09 (1,981).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Fafe vs AD Marco 09
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Fafe
4-3-3- 13Tiago Veiga
- 9M. Correia
- 11Picas
- 10Daniel Carvalho
- 8Mimito Biai
- 16G. Dinis
- 26João Batista
- 2Obama Ribeiro
- 15Breno
- 3P. Pereira
- 1P. Kudakovskiy
AD Marco 09
4-3-3- 8Erivaldo
- 9Ka
- 10L. Garro
- 23João Guilherme
- 20B. Traoré
- 18F. Fernandes
- 4Chicão
- 77R. Barrett
- 82J. Guerrero
- 2Victor Thiago
- 64T. Martins
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 01:19 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fafe have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; AD Marco 09 have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Trofense(home) | 2-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lajense(home) | 4-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Paredes(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Leça(away) | 3-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Pacos Ferreira(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Leça(away) | 0-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Maia Lidador(home) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Guimaraes B(home) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | São João Ver(away) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Régua(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Fafe wins, 3 draws, 1 AD Marco 09 win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | AD Marco 09 1-0 Fafe | Liga 3 |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Fafe 1-1 AD Marco 09 | Liga 3 |
| Dec 7, 2025 | AD Marco 09 1-1 Fafe | Liga 3 |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Fafe 0-0 AD Marco 09 | Liga 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Fafe score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; AD Marco 09 score 0.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fafe | 1.5 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| AD Marco 09 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 9 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fafe sit 5th in Liga 3 (9 points from 6 matches) and AD Marco 09 sit 3rd (10 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AD Marco 09 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | Fafe | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 9 |
A question about Fafe vs AD Marco 09?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fafe vs AD Marco 09?
- The Footlab AI model makes Fafe the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for AD Marco 09.
- Where and when is Fafe vs AD Marco 09 played?
- Fafe vs AD Marco 09 is played on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Parque Municipal dos Desportos, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.